工程项目全寿命期风险管理系统理论及集成研究

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1、天津大学博士学位论文工程项目全寿命期风险管理系统理论及集成研究姓名：金德民申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：郑丕谔20040601ABSTRACTInthisdissertation，systematicriskmanagementforprojectobjectisinvestigatedbyusingsystemengineeringtechnique，probabilitytheory，simulationtechnique，fuzzymathematicmethodandmulti．obiectdecisiontechnique，etc．Asaresult，anin

2、tegratedprojectriskmanagementsystemisproposedtosupportlife—cycleriskmanagementactivityinproject．Themaincontentsandachievementsofthisdissertationareasfollows．Comprehensiveandsystematicriskmanagementprocessispresentedbyanalyzingandcomparingwithsomecurrentriskmanagementprocesses，whichcanbehelpfultob

3、uildintegratedriskmanagementsystem．Consideringthelackofquantitativeanalysisinriskidentification．thetheoryofusingfactoranalysisandneuralnetworkmodeltoidentifyriskofprojectisinvestigatedinordertoaddquantitativeidentificationability．SystematicclassificationofriskauantificationiSmadeandamelioratedris

4、kmatrixmethod，expandableengineeringmethodology，fuzzyfaultytreeandeventtreemethodsareproposedtotreatdifficultquantitativeandexactdescriptiverisk．．ThecombinationofsimulationtechniqueandCIMmodel．combinationofPERTandCIMmodel．neuralnetworkmodelandfuzzyevaluationmodelareinvestigated，inordertoassessande

5、valuateprojectriskineconomics，scheduling，safetyandenvironmentaspect．Somecasesareincludedfordemonstration．．Severalmethodsforriskresponseincludingseveralriskcontrolmethodsforewarningsystem，etc．strategyandevaluationareproposed，suchasriskmilestonegraph，risk．Anintegratedmethodforlife-cycleprojectriskm

6、anagementsystemisproposed，basedonDSStheory．Theframework，informationmodel，anddatabasestructureofsystemaredefined，andmoduledesignandsimulationcomputationarealsomade．Theresultfromthedissertationcanincreaseefficiencyofriskmanagement．Keywords：riskquantitative，life—cycleprojectriskmanagement，neuralnetw

7、ork，integratedmanagementsystem独创性声明本人声明所呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下进行的研究工作和取得的研究成果，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢之处外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得叁鲞盘堂或其他教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均己在论文中作了明确的说明并表示了谢意。学位论文作者签名：锑幻签字日期：加叫年舌月；护日学位论文版权使用授权