基于可能性理论与ANP模型的BOT项目投资机会评价研究

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1、天津大学硕士学位论文基于可能性理论与ANP模型的BOT项目投资机会评价研究姓名：孙尉添申请学位级别：硕士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：孙慧20040601ABSTRACTInfrastructureprojectsprocuredviaconcessioncontractsareincreasinglybecomingthepreferredoptionindevelopingcountries.Theseprojectsareinherentlyhigh-riskinvestmentsinwhichpoliticalandeconomicinstability,soci

2、al,technologicalandothernon-financialfactorscansignificantlyafectthefinancialviabilityoftheprojectoverthelongtermofinvestment.Thus,anydecisiontoinvestintheseprojectsmustbebaseduponacombinedassessmentofthefinancialandnon-financialfactorssurroundingtheproject.Thispaperfirstintroducesthenece

3、ssityandpressingoftheresearchofevaluationonBOTinvestmentoption,andreviewstheresearchsituationsthroughouttheworld.ThentheparametersofevaluationonBOTinvestmentoptionareidentifiedafterdescribingtheconceptandfeatureofBOTindetailandanalyzingthecriticalsuccessfactorsofBOTinvestmentoptionandthei

4、rinteraction.The3`dpartofthispaperpointsoutthattraditionalevaluationmethodsincorporatingriskanalysistechniquesrequiretheinputofrelativefrequenciesthatarenoteasilyavailableinconstruction.Thispaperproposesamethodcapableofmodelingtheefectsofbothmonetaryandnon-monetaryaspectsofaninvestmentopt

5、ion,usingpossibilitytheoryandintervalmathematicstohandletheinherentuncertaintyassociatedwithsuchaspects.Toelicitingcriteriaweightsofthenon-financialfactorsproperly,thehierarchicalscalingmethod,ANPproposedbySaaty,isrecommended.Anumericalexampleispresentedtodemonstrateitsapplicationandsuper

6、iorityintheassessmentandrankingofavailableinvestment叩tions.Inaddition,thispaperprovidesasummaryofDDSscurrentlyavailabletoinvestors,highlightingtheirinabilitytoaddressthenon-financialfactorsuniquetodevelopingcountries.Basedontheanalysisabove,thispaperthenproposesaDSSframeworkforevaluationo

7、fBOTprojectopportunities.KEYWORDS:BOT,Opportunityevaluation,Uncertainty,Possibilitytheory,ANP,DSS独创性声明本人声明所呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下进行的研究工作和取得的研究成果，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢之处外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得2遭达全-或其他教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均已在论文中作了明确的说明并表示了谢意。黝做储挑刊分添拼溯:*。、年