城市智能型防洪减灾决策支持系统研究

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1、天津大学博士学位论文城市智能型防洪减灾决策支持系统研究姓名：阎俊爱申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：钟登华20031101ABSTRACTTosolveaseriesofproblemsconfrontedinresearchfieldofurbanfloodcontrolanddisasterreductionofourcountry,thetheoriesandmethodsofDSSforurbanintelligentfloodcontrolanddisasterreductionwerediscussedbyapplyingthet

2、heoriesandmethodsofmodemmanagementsciencefromtheviewpointofsystemanalysis．Meanwhile，someproblemsinthesystemarestudiedthoroughly．Themainachievementsareasfollows：1．Inallusiontothecharacteristicsofurbanfloodcontr01anddisasterreductiondecision，suchasurgentdecision-makingtime，theimperf

3、ectionanduncertaintyofinformationneeded，thetheoreticframeworkofDSSforurbanintelligentfloodcontr01anddisasterreductionisdesignedbyusingES．ANNandGISbasedonfloodcontrolanddisasterdeductionDSS．2．nleinteractionsamongobjectsbearingflooddisaster,inducing．．floodfactorsandinducing．．flooden

4、vironmentofurbanflooddisastersystemareanalyzed．Theformationmechanismofurbanflooddisasterisstudiedandanalyzedcomprehensivelyanddeeplyaimingatthecomplexityofurbanfloodformation．ItCanbeconcludedthatthecyclingandannualvariationsofclimaticfactorsarethedirectfactorsleadingtofloods．these

5、verenaturalenvironmentaldeteriorationresultingfromhumansocial—economicactivities，however,isthedominatingfactorinurbanfloodincreasing．3．Anewrunoffforecastingmodel．basedonthecombinationofgeneticalgorithmandneuralnetwork，isproposed，whichintegratewiththestrongpointofgeneticalgorithman

6、dneuralnetwork．neaccuracyandthespeedofrunoffforecastingareeffectivelyimprovedthatofferedanewmethodforsolvingrunoffforecastingproblem．4．ThetechnicalprinciplesandmethodsofGIS—basedfloodroutingdynamicvisuaIsimulationforriver,storageanddetentionbasinsareproposed．Atthesametime，theestab

7、lishmentprocessofthree．dimensionalvisualmodeIsisanalyzed．andthegeneralframeworkanddevelopmentpatternofthefloodroutingsystemforriver,storagedetentionbasinsaredesigned．IntheendtherealizationoffunctionsofthesystemisalSOintroducedindetails．5．Theeffectfactorsofurbanflood10SSareanalyzed

8、systematically,theurbanfloodlossi