城际客运专线客运量预测理论及方法研究

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1、西南交通大学硕士学位论文城际客运专线客运量预测理论及方法研究姓名：吕从高申请学位级别：硕士专业：安全技术及工程指导教师：蒋葛夫20081201西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第1页AbstractTheintercitypassenger—dedicatedlineisoneofthesignificantinfrastructuresintheplanningofurbanagglomeration，whichwillhavefar—reachinginfluencetothewholearrangementanddevelopmentmodel，anditsconstructionwillb

2、easystemsengineeringwithbroadaffectandstrongcomprehensiveness．Moreover,theforecastingofpassengervolumeistheinitialandbasicworkinthepassenge卜dedicatedline’Splanningandconstruction．Passengervolumeisthefoundationofline’Stechnicalstandardsandequipmentquantities，thekeyofprojectbenefits，andtheimportantbas

3、isoftheprogrammingoftransportationpatternandorganizationscheme．Therefore，ithasgreatsignificancetoforecastitbyascientificandrationalway．Thethesisaimsatestablishingapassengerflowforecastingmannerfortheintercitypassenger—dedicatedlinewhichfitforournationalconditions，andofferingsomereferenceandbasistoth

4、edecisionofitsconstruction．Abovea11．theintercitypassenger-dedicatedlineiSdiscussedindetail，includingtheexplanationofitsconceptandcharacteristics，theanalysisofpassengerflow’Sgenerationmechanism，traitsandinfluencingfactors．Andthen，itsfunctionsandorientationsareanalyzedthroughtherelationshipsbetweenthe

5、intercitypassenger-dedicatedlineandothertrafficmodes．Afterwards，someforecastingmethodsofpassengertransportvolumeareintroducedandcompared，whicharewidelyusedhomeandabroad，andtheirshortagesandlimitsarepointedout．Thethoughtsofpresentforecastingmethodsareaccepted，andsomeimprovementsaremadeaswell．Basedonf

6、our-stagepredictmethod，anewmethodisproposed，whichtakesthestagepredictmethodastheprogress，thetwo．stagedivisionpredictmethodasthesubject．Theameliorationofthenewmethodisthat，makingthepre—partitionfirst，andtheunionsdistributepartitionfollowed，whichjointwiththeoperatingorganizations，consideringthecorpora

7、tionandcompetitionamongallthepublictrafficmeans，andpresentingthethoughtofrepeatedallotmentvalidation．Besides，inordertomaketheresultclosetothereality,thepredictmeansandmodelsineverystageareimproved．Int