基于钼业市场联合度量的中国钼铁市场作用与价格波动研究

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1、中南大学博士学位论文基于钼业市场联合度量的中国钼铁市场作用与价格波动研究姓名：方兰申请学位级别：博士专业：资源与环境经济学指导教师：李夕兵;段玉贤20090201博士学位论文ABSTRACTMolybdenumisoneofthemostimportantstrategymetals，enjoysapromisingmarketintermsofeconomicglobalizationandmarketeconomysystem．However,therearewildfluctuationsofmolybdenumproducts’prices，witht

2、hecontinuousandsteadygrowthofcumulativeproductionaswellasequilibriumofsupplyanddemand，whichwasdetrimentaltoriskaverseandsustainabledevelopmentinmolybdenumenterprises．However,theoreticalandpositivistanalysisonpricefluctuationsathomeandabroadfocusedonqualitativeresearchmethodandthecon

3、clusionsdifferedinthousandsofways，withtheabsenceofquantityorsemiquantityresearch．Inviewofthesefacts，themainresearchesinthispaperarebasedontheeconometricmodelandmethodforanalysisofdynamiceconomicsystem．．Afterretrospectiveanalysisofmolybdenumindustry’Sdevelopmentsituationinrecentyears

4、，thispapermeasuresthemolybdenumindustryfromfouraspectsasfollows：a)Pricefluctuatingandinteractiverelationsininternationalferro．molybdenummarkets．b、lPricefluctuatingandinteractiverelationsinintemationalmolybdenumoxidemarketsandbetweenferro．molybdenummarketsandmolybdenumoxidemarkets．c)

5、PricefluctuatingandinteractiverelationsinChinamolybdenumstockmarket．d)PricefluctuatingandinteractiverelationsbetweenChinamolybdenumstockmarketandferro．molybdenummarket．TheresearchresultsshowthatChinaisalargecountry,butfarfromastrongcountry,inmolybdenumindustry,forthereisnotequilibri

6、umoftheindustryscaleandinfluentialpowerwhetherexchangeratestakenintoconsiderationornot．Theeffectbetweenstockmarket，whichstartedratherlateinChina，andactualmarketinmolybdenumWaslimited，concomitantwithaparadox．Thedeeperresearchesonmolybdenummarketsinefficientfeatureandcomeupwithsomeadv

7、isesonshowtheirsustainabledevelopmentofmolybdenumindustry．Undertheshort-termmemory博士学位论文featureofmolybdenummarkets，thefuturepricefluctuatingdynamicmeasurementarebasedonCo．Integrationmodels，ARMAmodels，PanelDatamodelsandSOon．Anewmethod，PD卜-一ARMAmodel，isalSObuilt，Takingbothendogenousan

8、dectogenousfactorsu