基于风险评价的公路工程投标报价研究

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1、分类号U49密级1{IIIrlllHTIrIWlrlrlIIIIIIIIHI!IIlHll。Y1524933单位代码10618学号】Q§3Q!Q33墨麽交通戈謦硕士学位论文论文题目：基于风险评价的公路工程投标报价研究SmdyonHighwayProjectBiddingQuotationRiskBasedonRiskdecision研究生姓名：佟玲导师姓名、职称：周直教授申请学位门类专业名称：论文答辩日期学位授予单位工学管理科学与工程答辩委员会主席；黄超2009年3月评阅人：黄超池洁ABSTRACTHighwayproj

2、ectbiddingsystemisbecomingacommontransactionfashioIl，AsChinavshighwayconstructionmarketbecomesmoreformalized．Biddingquotationisoneofkeycomplicationsfortheownersevaluating，atthesametimeISallimportantcompetitionpartofbiddingfortheconstructionunits,biddingquotationi

3、saimportantworkforthesuccessfulbidderandtheconstructionunitgettingprofit．Atpresentthereareagreatdealofuncertaintiesaffectthecostofhighwayprojects，whichreqmrestheuSeofscientificmethodstoanalsisqualitativeandquantitativeriskatbiddingquotationbytheconstructions．Inor

4、dertomakethequotationmoreaccordingwiththeacnlaIsituation,sotheconstructionsconsidertherisks，getmoreprofits·ThisarticlefromtheperspectiveofconstructionofhighwayprojectsintheproceSSofbiddingquotationofriskassessmentmethodstoconductin-depthsvstematicstudy．Characteri

5、sticsforhighwayprojects，analyzetheimpactofroadworkS．metenderoffervariousfactors，aswellasthefactorsofuncertainty,takingintoconsiderationthewindfactorinthecorrelationbetweenthefeatures，setupacombinationofqualitativeandquantitativemathematicalmodel．Becauseofther眦do砌

6、essoftllefactorsleadingtobiddingquotationwiththerandomnessofthecostofvaluation,bytherandomnessofthefactorsresearch，thefmalanalysisoftheriskmeasurc：menttenderoffer．Variousfactorsincludingtheuncertaintyofstudycharacteristicsandthedistributionoffactorsrelatedtoeacho

7、ther．ThisarticlefocusesontakingintoaccountcorrelationbetweenvariablesatthetimeoftheMonteCarlosimulationestimatesexpectations，variancetheprobabilitydistributionofthecostoftheproject，andrisk．AnalyticHierarchyProcessonthehighwaytenderofiervariousriskfactorsaffecting

8、theweightofsequencing，theriskfactorscometo廿1eroleofsizeandapplicationdetails．Roadworks，thetenderpnceinaccordance蜥tllt11econstitution,setuphighwayengineeringris