应用时间序列分析作业1.docx

《应用时间序列分析作业1.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、应用时间序列分析作业1、原始数据我国1949—2005年人口自然增长率194916196827.38198716.61195019196926.08198815.73195120197025.83198915.04195220197123.33199014.39195323197222.16199112.98195424197320.89199211.6195520.32197417.48199311.45195620.5197515.69199411.21195723.23197612.66199510.55195817.24197712.06199610.42195910.191978

2、12199710.061960-4.57197911.6119989.1419613.78198011.8719998.18196226.99198116.6120007.58196333.33198215.7320016.95196427.64198315.0420026.45196528.38198414.3920036.01196626.22198514.2620045.87196725.53198615.5720055.89表12、对原始数据进行处理：增长率：对进行平滑处理：先对进行平滑再平方后得到的数值：对平方：先对取平方再进行平滑得到的数值：样本方差：标准差注：=-；年份194

3、916025600001950191625636125600161619512016.9285.61400287.51.891.374778.6513625.1486419522017.83317.9089400321.253.34111.827876.8627928.7972119532318.481341.547361529344.8753.327641.824187.5359129.4260919542419.8367393.4946669576400.11256.617832.572514.4016135.27179195520.3221.08569444.6063228412.9

4、024452.878758.272432.876183.8285938.34279195620.520.855983434.9720269420.25440.8858455.913822.431836.2649835.44699195723.2320.749188430.5288068539.6329434.6950924.166282.041158.502332.99608195817.2421.493432461.967605297.2176466.1764344.208832.051549.1841733.80269195910.1920.217402408.7433505103.8

5、361415.4887846.745432.59724.6342235.800591960-4.5717.209182296.155928520.8849321.99297925.83715.08302-13.28947.7072819613.7810.675427113.96474314.2884231.660555117.69610.8488-54.41775.76805196226.998.606798974.07698806728.4601166.44890992.37199.61103-49.05966.27299196333.3314.121759199.42408461110

6、.889335.052266135.62811.646-55.75483.99747196427.6419.884231395.3826617763.9696567.803256172.42113.1309-58.90198.66965196528.3822.210962493.3268346805.4244626.653159133.32611.5467-47.06991.49117196626.2224.061673578.9641281687.4884680.284532101.3210.0658-36.33384.4565196725.5324.709171610.54315126

7、51.7809682.44569271.90258.47954-26.16875.58639196827.3824.95542622.7729863749.6644673.24625450.47337.10445-17.67167.58214196926.0825.682794659.6059069680.1664696.17169836.56586.04697-10.59961.96459197025.8325.801