中国电影：回到聚光灯下

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1、By:GaryGuo(S1700517120002)andJingHan(S1705518080001)EquityResearchReportMediaMarch2019www.research.hsbc.comChinaCinemaInitiatecoverage:BackinthespotlightChina’sbigcinemachainsarepoisedforaperiodofsustainedgrowth.WeforecastthatboxofficerevenuewillriseataCAGRof11.8%over2019-21eTh

2、emarketleadersthatareincreasingtheirreachacrossthevaluechainshouldbenefitmostInitiatecoverageofthreecinemachains–WandaFilm(Buy),HengdianEntertainment(Buy)andShanghaiFilm(Hold)–andupgradeChinaFilmtoBuyfromHoldDisclosures&Disclaimer:Thisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanal

3、ystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.WhyreadthisreportuChina’sfilmindustryisontheriseagain,whichisgoodnewsforthecountry’sbigcinemachains;weforecastboxofficerevenuewillriseataCAGRof11.8%over2019-21euSmallercinemasarelosingmoney,soindust

4、ryconsolidationisinevitable;theindustryleadersarealsoincreasingtheirreachacrossthevaluechainuInitiatecoverageofthreecinemachains–WandaFilm(Buy),HengdianEntertainment(Buy)andShanghaiFilm(Hold)–andupgradeChinaFilmtoBuyfromHold;preferWandaFilmContentsAgoodscreenplay3Industryoutlook

5、13CompanySection21WandaFilm(002739CH)22HengdianEntertainment(603103CH)34ChinaFilm(600977CH)44ShanghaiFilm(601595CH)51Disclosureappendix60Disclaimer64AgoodscreenplayHigh-calibrefilms,aqualityviewingexperience,favourablepolicyinitiativesandagrowingaudienceawayfromthebigcities…webe

6、lievetheoutlookforChina’sbigcinemachainsisbright.Theleaderswillincreasetheirmarketshareascompetitionsqueezesoutsmallerchainsinthisfragmentedsector;theyarealsoexpandingintootherpartsofthefilmindustry.WeforecastboxofficetakingswillriseataCAGRof11.8%over2019-21e.Inthisreport,weinit

7、iatecoverageofthreecinemachains–WandaFilm(Buy),HengdianEntertainment(Buy)andShanghaiFilm(Hold)–andupgradeChinaFilmtoBuy(fromHold).BackinthespotlightChina’sfilmindustryisontheriseagainIt’snearlyayearsincewepublishedourthematicreportonChina’sfilmmakers.Wehighlightedthatboxofficet

8、akingshadstalledin2016forthefirsttimeafteraninf