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1、WHAT’SCOOKIN’INMACHINERYANDENGINEERING&CONSTRUCTIONYOUSAYYOUWANTARESOLUTIONCATALYSTWATCH4/9WASDE4/9-10(est.)DERetailSales4/9DCIInvestorDay4/10EIAPetroleumStatusReport4/9-10(est.)USTractorData4/12BakerHughesRigCount4/9-10(est.)GermanTractorDataWHAT’SHOTANDWHAT’SNOTMachinery
2、:TheMachinerygroupoutperformedthisweekwithGTESandURIleadingtheway,helpedbyoptimismonChinatradewarresolution.ChinaPMIsalsosurprisedontheupsideforthemonthofMarchwiththeindexrisingto50.5comparedto49.2inFebruary.SentimentonshortercyclenameslikeParkerHannifinisimproving,reflect
3、ingconfidenceincreasesthatindustrialproductionmomentumshouldimproveinthebackhalfof2019coupledwithwhatisviewedasaconservativeguide.Newsflowontruckwasmixed.Class8truckordersforMarchcameinat15.7Kunits,largelyinlinewithexpectations,althougha66%declinefromtheprioryear.Thesignif
4、icantdeclineinordersascomparedtotheprioryearhasbeenlargelyanticipated,whilefreightgrowthhasbeenslowing(howeverstillgrowing),andOEsarefullthroughyear-end.Overseas,trucksalessurprisedpositivelywithChinaheavytrucksalesvolumeinMarchup4%YoYandBrazilsemi-heavyandheavyincreased38
5、%inMarchondifficultcomparisons.ShiftingtoFarmEquipment,BrazilTractorsjumped57%andcombinesrose42%inMarch.Whilesmallertractorsdrovemostoftheincrease,up110%,largertractorswerealsosolid,up10%,andcombineswereveryhealthy.FinallyCATreceivedanotherdowngradethisweek,althoughthestoc
6、kremainedresilient.WebelieveconcernsNAconstructionisrollingareoverdonebasedonourmoreconstructivestanceonenergyinfrastructureprojectsmovingaheadinparticularLNGandpetrochemicalcoupledwithpotentialupsidefromChina.Furthermore,commoditieslikeoilandcopperareontherise,aleadingind
7、icatorforCAT'sendmarkets.WealsothinkpotentialstructuralhighercashflowthiscycleandanswersoncapitalallocationandthelikelihoodofamargintargetincreaseatCAT’sanalystdayinMayprovideanotherlegtothestory.Engineering&Construction:Theoil-drivennamesoutperformedthisweekwithMDRandFLRb
8、othup,leadingthegroup.Bottomline,momentumonLNGFIDsmovingforwardcontinuestobuild.MDRwashel
