泰国消费品行业：消费拐点

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1、4April2019AsiaPacific/ThailandEquityResearchConsumerDiscretionaryResearchAnalystsWarayutLuangmettakul6626146214warayut.luangmettakul@credit-suisse.comAtulSethi6626146211atul.sethi.2@credit-suisse.comThaniyaKevalee6626146219thaniya.kevalee@credit-suisse.comT

2、hailandConsumerSectorTHEMEInflectionpointforconsumptionNon-durableSemi-durableDurable100806040200Owned/purchasedinthelast3-12monthsPlantopurchaseorspendmoreinthenext12-24months(net)Figure1:Higherpurchaseintentionfornon-durablesCarsPropertyFashionPerfumesJewe

3、llerySportsShoesWatchesGlassesSunglassesSmartphoneLeathergoodsPersonalcareCosmeticsFeminineTissuesBottledwaterCarbonatedDairyInstantnoodlesJuiceBeerSpiritsCigaretteSource:CreditSuisseEmergingConsumerSurvey2019■Moodlooksencouraging.ThailandhasbeenincludedinCr

4、editSuisse’sninthEMConsumerSurvey.Thailandlackscomparativehistoricaldata,asthisisthefirsttimeithasbeenincluded,butthemoodofThaiconsumersappearssurprisinglypositivecomparedtoourimpressiononvariousmacro-economicindicators.63%ofrespondentsthinkitisanexcellent/g

5、oodtimetomakeamajorpurchase.Theincomemomentumalsoseemspositive,withanet31%ofrespondentsexpectingtheirincometofurtherimproveinthenext12months.■Shiftingconsumptionpatterns:WetookadeepdiveintothesurveyandfoundthatThailandisataninflectionpointofpotentialshiftsin

6、consumptionpatterns.Wehaveidentifiedfourpotentialshiftsintheconsumptionbehaviourandlifestyles.Thesechangesare:(1)durablestonon-durables,(2)offlinetoonlineactivities,(3)cashbasedtonon-cashpaymentand(4)eat-outtodineathome.■WelikeCPALLandLH:Wehighlighttheconclu

7、sionsfromthesurveyasbeinggenerallypositiveforretailers,propertydevelopersandconsumerfinancelenders(AEONTSandKTC)andnoteathreattoQSRoperators(CENTELandMINT).WehighlightCPALLandLHasthebestnamestogainanexposuretothetheme.Theshiftfromdurablestonon-durableslooksg

8、enerallyfavourabletoretailers,butthechangeinlifestyles,particularlyfromofflinetoonlineactivities,makesCPALLthebestfitinthesedynamicenvironments.Householdpropertyownershipdataispositivefortheprop