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1、ABGlobalTobaccoiQOSvsJUULGlobalResearch29March2019TobaccoGlobalEquitiesNumber1pushbacktoourheatedtobaccogrowthoutlook:JUULThekeypushbacktoourPMIupgradelastmonthwasthatJUULwouldtakesharefromiQOS("Whendeathandtaxesbecomelesscertain").Weviewtheriskassociatedwiththisaslimited:1)vap
2、ingproducts(pre-JUUL)arenotanimpedimenttoheatedtobaccouptake,2)currentevidencesuggestsiQOSdoesabetterjobofconvertingsmokersthanJUULtypeproducts,and3)ifwearewrong,weseelimiteddownsidetoPMI'sneartermgrowth,andviewBATasthebestplacedforvapoursharegains.Thecurrentgenerationofvapourpro
3、ductsisnotanobstacletoiQOSgrowthLookingacross20marketswherewehavesufficientdata,wefindnostatisticalrelationshipbetweenvapingpenetrationandthereceptivenessofconsumerstoheatedtobacco.Onacountrybycountrybasis,foreveryJapan(novaping,lotsofiQOS)andUK(lotsofvaping,noiQOS),thereisaCzech
4、Republic(lotsofboth),andaSpain(notmuchofeither).Thisisalsotruewhenweruntheanalysisincombinationwithotherfactors;vapingjustdoesnotseemtoexplainthevariancebetweendifferentlevelsofconsumerreceptiveness.Givenbotharecigarettealternatives,thismightseemcounter-intuitive;howeverthissugge
5、ststheyappealtodifferentconsumers.LimitedevidencetosuggestthenewJUUL-typeproductswillchangethisJUUListheleadingexampleofthehighstrength,nicotinesaltbasedpodproductsthatweseeasasignificantinnovationforthevapourcategory.However,whenitcomestocompetingwithiQOSforsmokers,theevidencewe
6、havesofarsuggeststhattheconversionratesarenotasgood.Weviewaco-existenceofthetwotypesofproductsasthemostlikelyoutcome,withheatedtobaccoappealingtoadifferenttypeofnicotineuserthanvapourproducts.ThemostimportantcatalystforinvestorperceptionherewillbethelaunchofiQOSintheUS(weassume2H
7、).BATisthebesthedgeforPMIifwearewrongWhatifwearewrongandJUULisadirectandeffectivecompetitorforiQOS?Wewouldnotexpectthistohaveanimpacton1-2yearsalesgrowthduetotheheadstartandhighrestrictionsonvapouroutsidetheUS.Furthermore,weviewBATasbestplacedtocapitalisefromvapourgrowth;itistaki
8、ngsharefromJUULintheUS,growingvapourreve
