2018年Q4美国纸品与包装行业盈利总结：势头能继续么

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1、COREU.S.Paper&Packaging4Q18EarningsWrapWeek2:Canmomentumcontinues,plasticsnotfarbehindEARNINGSREVIEWU.S.Paper&PackagingPOSITIVEUnchangedEquityResearch11February2019BeveragecandemandandinvestorsentimentaregainingmomentumwhileSEEisForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetand

2、earningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.drivingrenewedinterestinPlastics:Whilewefirmlybelievethatconsumerpreference,capitaldecisionsandgovernmentregulationsaregoingtoultimatelybethedrivingforcesbehindsustainability,itisevidentthatcandemandisseeingsomemodesttail

3、windsparticularlyinEuropeinregardstoenvironmentalconcerns.Globalbeveragecangrowthatthehigh-endofa2%-3%rangeappearsachievablewhileglasscontinuestomuddlealongatmaybea1%growthrate.Somewillstilldebatewhethercansaretakingshare,butitiscleartousthatgrowthof2%-3%issustainableand

4、isaheadofendmarkettrends.Wewouldexpectinvestorinterestinthecanmanufacturerstorisethroughout2019despitealreadyhighlevelsofinterestin2018.Atthesametime,investorinterestinplasticpackagingmanufactureswanedthroughout2018andpickedupsomemomentumlateintheyearasresinpricesfell.Ho

5、wever,SealedAirappearstobetheonlyproducerthattrulybenefitsfromfallingresinonitsP&Landwhencombinedwithaboveaverageorganicgrowthandcostreductioninitiatives,wethinkthatinterestwillcontinuetobuild.Earningstobe2Hweightedin2019:Normalseasonalitypushespackagingearningstobesligh

6、tly2Hweightedbuttherearecompoundingfactorsthatwillmagnifythispatternin2019.Theseincludethecarryoverofinflationarytrendsfrom2018,significantfxheadwindsin1H19thatflattenouttoneutralin2H,andcostreductionactionsthatdon’tcomeintofulleffectuntillaterintheyear.Thiswillleadtofla

7、ttishyoygrowthinearningsin1H19,whichcouldcausesomeinvestorstotakeapauseonthegroup,thoughwearenotconcernedasthe2Hweightingisn’tpredicatedonanaccelerationofdemandorsomeotherexogenousfactorinthebackoftheyear.CCKjustgoodenough:EuropeanFoodandBevoperationsin4Qwerethebiggestdi

8、sappointment,butglobalbeveragedemandremainsstrong,theTransitPackagingbusinesshasperformedasexpectedsinc