探索美国金融和实体经济间的联系：进行面板单位根检验和协整分析【外文翻译】

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1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：Exploringthefinance-realeconomylinkinUS:empiricalevidencefrompanelunitrootandcointegrationanalysisinstability出处：EmpirEcon作者：Abdou-AzizNiang.AbdoulayeDiagne.Marie-claudePichery原文：Exploringthefinance-realeconomylinkinU.S.:empiricalevidencefrompanelunitrootandcointegrationana

2、lysis1IntroductionTheburstingofthebubbleinU.S.financialmarketsin2008forcedsomeofthelargestandmostvulnerablebanksandinsurancecompaniesintheU.S.todeclarebankruptcyorseekfinancialaid.Marketconfidencedecreasedsharplyanddespitemanyefforts,theU.S.economyinevitablyplungedintorecession.Inorderto

3、gainanunderstandingoflikelydevelopmentsinthiseconomy,itisimportanttoknowwhichlinksactuallyexistbetweenfinancialmarketsandtherealeconomyintheU.S.Thisstudyaimstoanalyzetheselinks,targetingkeyareasoftheU.S.economysuchasmanufacturing,housing,andemployment.Theanalysiswillalsoaddresstherelatio

4、nshipbetweentheaccumulationoftwindeficitsandthestateofU.S.financialmarkets.Specifically,wewilldiscusstherelationshipsbetweenthecommonfactorsresponsibleforco-fluctuationsbetweenmacroeconomicdataseriesandthevariablesidentifiedasfactorsobservedinfinancialmarkets.Theuseofobservedvariablesasp

5、roxiesforunderlyingfactorsisbecominganincreasinglycommonpractice.ThisapproachwasusedbyChenetal.(1986)who,inthecontextofarbitragepricingtheory,showthatunobservedfinancialfactorsarerelatedtoinflation.ThethreefactorsthatweadoptarethoseofFamaandFrench(1993).WeusetheBaiandNg(2006)testtolookfo

6、rrelationsbetweenthecommonfactorsinthedifferentsectorsoftheU.S.economy.Thesecommonfactorsareestimatedusingprincipalcomponentanalysis.Thus,weuseafactormodeltocapturetheco-movementsbetweeneachofthesesectorsbeingconsidered.Theuseoffactormodelstoaccountforcommonfactorswasinitiallydevelopedby

7、BurnsandMitchell(1946).Thisstrategyhasalsobeenusedbyanumberofotherauthorsintheirstudyofsectoralco-movements,includingLilien(1982),ChamberlainandRothschild(1983),DavisandHaltiwanger(1992),Crouxetal.(2001),andDufrenotetal.(2007).Thistypeofanalysisallowsustoaccountfortheimpo