Joint RP–SP data in a mixed logit analysis of trip timing decisions.PDF

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1、Availableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comTransportationResearchPartE44(2008)1025–1038www.elsevier.com/locate/treJointRP–SPdatainamixedlogitanalysisoftriptimingdecisionsMariaBo¨rjesson*RoyalInstituteofTechnology,SE-10044Stockholm,SwedenReceived14September2006;receivedinrevisedform9October2007;acc

2、epted25November2007AbstractInthecurrentpaper,adeparturetimechoicemodelincludingtraveltimevariabilityisestimated,combiningstatedpref-erenceandrevealedpreferencedata.WeaccountforresponsescaledifferencesbetweenRPandSPdataand,applyingthemixedlogitmodel,testforcorrelationofschedulingsensitivityacro

3、ssRPandSPchoiceswithinindividuals.TheanalysisimpliessystematicdifferencesintheRPandSPdata.WithsupportoftheevaluationfromtheStockholmtrial,thisindi-catesthatSPislesstrustworthyfortriptiminganalysisandforecasting,presumablybecausetherearetemporaldifferencesinRPandSPchoicesituations.Ó2008Published

4、byElsevierLtd.Keywords:Revealedpreference;Statedpreference;Mixedlogit;Unobservedheterogeneity;Traveltimeuncertainty;Scheduledelay1.IntroductionTriptimingchoicehasreceivedincreasedinterestasaconsequenceofthecongestionchargingtrialinStockholm2006.Ithaslongbeenexpectedthatdriver’spreferencesford

5、ifferentdeparturetimesareanimpor-tantdimensionforpolicyevaluationincongestedregions.Inthispaper,adeparturetimechoicemodelforStockholmisdeveloped,takingintoaccountthatdriversfaceanuncertaintraveltime.Modechoiceiscon-sideredpartially,bymodellingthepropensitytoswitchfromdriving.Itdoesnot,however,

6、takeintoaccountthatpublictransporttravellersmayswitchtodriving.Wefurthertestfortasteheterogeneityinschedulingdelayandtravelcostsensitivity,applyingamixedlogitmodelstructure.Statedpreference(SP)datahaveinthepresentcasemanyadvantages.Thehighcorrelationofmeantraveltimeandtraveltimeuncertaintyinr

7、evealedpreference(RP)datamakesaccurateestimationofthetrade-offsunfeasible.Experiencesuggeststhathypotheticalchoicesareunderstoodbytherespondentsreasonablywellandthattheyarecapableofmakingfairlyaccuratetrade-offsbetweentheattributes(Louviereetal