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1、MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHASIA/PACIFICMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+BinLiMorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportintheInstitutionalInvestor2013All-AsiaResearchBin.Li@morganstanley.comandSalesTeamSurvey.+85222397596Requestyourballot.IanLiuFormoreinformationonMorganS
2、tanleyparticipantsIan.Liu@morganstanley.comviewall+85222397814YolandaHuJanuary30,2013Yolanda.Hu@morganstanley.com+85228485649IndustryViewChinaPharmaceuticalsIn-LinePipelineNPVAnalysisThisreportincludes:UncoversHiddenValueMorganStanley’sProprietaryPip
3、elineNPVModel,updatedMorganStanley’sProprietaryChinaNewDrugDatabase,Keyfindingsonpipelinequalityofdomesticdrugcompanies,andFollowinguponour“ChinaHasR&D”report,weChina-USR&Dcomparison.havebuiltanetpresentvalue(NPV)modeltoassessthepipelineofthecompanie
4、swecover.WePipelineNPVofourcoveragecompanieshavealsoidentified‘first-in-class’and‘me-too’drugstodifferentiatethequalityofthepipeline.Our2,5002,256NPV(US$mn)Incremental%100%updateddatabaseincludesfilingsasofDec’12.2,00075%PipelineNPVrevealsnewinsights
5、oninvestmentby1,500drugcompanies:WebelievethattheseNPVestimates50%notonlyhighlighttheimportanceofpipelinesbutalso1,000856856helpinvestorsassessthecompanies’long-term40537636025%500287potential.Notsurprisingly,ourproprietaryanalysis19599revealsthatpip
6、elineNPVrepresentsanincremental00%36%,35%,40%,and17%tothecurrentmarketvalueofHengruiSinoCPGSihuanSHSimcereLee'sUnited3SBioBiopharmPharmLabsHengrui,Sinobiopharm,ChinaPharm,andSihuan,respectively,supportingourOverweightratingsonthesePipelinefilingreach
7、edthehighestlevelsince2006stocks.Butwefoundthebiggestincrementalpipeline5045valueforLee’sPharmaandSimcere(86%and85%),4038suggestingthatthesetwocompanieshavethemost403632upsidepotentialfromtheirpipelineproducts.3030262324ImprovingR&Dquality–40of329pip
8、elinedrugs2017arefirst-in-class:Weexaminedthemechanismofactionforover260innovativedrugsunderclinical10development.Among40INDapplicationsforfirst-0in-classdrugs,10(25%)areoncologydrugs,eightare2003200420052006200720082009201020112012forthecentralnervo