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1、EmergingMarketsResearchChina28January2013China:BeyondtheMiraclePart8–CanChinamanageitsfiscalrisks?•China’sfiscalsystemissoundiflookedatonthebasisofthegovernment’sYipingHuangbalancedbudgetandrelativelylowpublicdebtburden.However,thefiscal+85229033291outlookis
2、morechallengingifallcontingentliabilitiesaretakenintoaccount.yiping.huang@barclays.com•Thecurrentdecentralisedfiscalsystem,whichwasestablishedin1994,facesaJianChangsignificantmismatchbetweenrevenuesandexpendituresatthelocallevel.Local+85229032654jian.chang@b
3、arclays.comgovernmentsoftenhavetoresorttofeecollections,landsalesanddirectborrowingtomeettheirspendingneeds.StevenLingxiuYang+85229032653•Localgovernmentsalsolackanaccountablefiscalsystemwithhardbudgetstevenlingxiu.yang@barclays.comconstraints.Standingatanes
4、timated25%ofGDP,wethinklocalgovernments’liabilities,ifleftunchecked,couldgrowrapidly,posingsignificantfiscalandwww.barclays.comfinancialrisksinthemediumterm.•Inthelongrun,wethinkthepensionsystemposesthegreatestthreattofiscalsustainabilityinChina.Thereisalrea
5、dyalargefundinggap,estimatedtobeaslargeas35%of2011GDP,andthepopulationwillagerapidlyinthecomingyears.•China’sgovernmentliabilitiesarealreadyveryhigh.Weestimatetotalliabilitiesat62-97%ofGDP,dependingonassumptionsofpensiongaps.Moreover,somecurrentfavourablecon
6、ditionsfordebtsustainabilityarelikelytochangeasgrowthslows,capitalaccountbecomesmoreopenandfinancingcostsrise.•AlthoughwethinktheprobabilityofadebtcrisisinChinaislow,theriskisreal,especiallyifthecontingentliabilitiesoflocalgovernmentsandthefinancialsystem,as
7、wellasthepensiongap,continuetogrow.•Thekeytoavertingtheriskofadebtcrisisisfurthereconomicreforms,includingChina:BeyondtheMiraclereportsfinancialreform,state-ownedenterprise(SOE)reform,fiscalandpensionreform.TitleTimeContingentliabilitiesneedtobeeffectivelyco
8、ntrolledandmanaged.LocalPart1-China'snexttransitionSep-11governmentsoftbudgetconstraintsandtheensuingoverspendandoverborrowneedtobeaddressed.Part2-ThecomingfinancialOct-11revolution•Policiesaddr
