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1、JournalofMonetaryEconomics49(2002)229–233Commenton:Arebehavioralasset-pricing$modelsstructural?JessicaA.Wachter*SternSchoolofBusiness,NewYorkUniversity,NewYork,NY10012,USAReceived14May2001;receivedinrevisedform5September2001;accepted6September20011.Intr
2、oductionAccordingtoStanleyZin,financialeconomistsonbothsidesofthebehavioralfinancedebatehavefailedtoasktherightquestions.ToZin,themostimportantquestionweshouldaskaboutbehavioralmodelsiswhethertheymakeaccuratepredictions.Structuralmodelsatleasthavepredicti
3、onastheirgoal,whetherornottheyachieveit.Implicitinthisviewisthenotionthatstructuralmodelssomehow‘‘explainwhatisgoingon’’,thattheycanofferinsightsintowhyeconomicphenomenaoccur.Inmostotherfieldsofscience,evaluatingastructuralmodelwouldnotbeamatterofdebate.B
4、ecausethegoalofastructuralmodelisprediction,themodelwouldbeevaluateddirectlyusingacontrolledexperiment.Ifinfinancewecouldsomehowchangetheparametersofoureconomy,oratleaststatisticallydetectsuchachange,wewouldalsohaveadirecttestofastructuralmodel.Theformer
5、isclearlyimpossible;thelatter,Zinargues,isunreliable.Thequestionofhowtoevaluateastructuralmodelwithoutexperimentsisclearlyadifficultone.Insteadofattemptingananswer,Zinarguesthattwocommonlyusedcriteriaarewrong.Oneofthesecriteria,thatamodelappearrealistic,l
6、ooksgoodatfirstglance.But,quotingFriedmanandLucas,Zinarguesthatwearenottryingfor$Commentson‘‘AreBehavioralAsset-PricingModelsStructural?’’byStanleyE.ZinpreparedfortheApril2001Carnegie-RochesterConference.*Tel.:+1-212-998-0799;fax:+1-212-995-4233.E-mailad
7、dress:jwachter@stern.nyu.edu(J.A.Wachter).0304-3932/02/$-seefrontmatterr2002ElsevierScienceB.V.Allrightsreserved.PII:S0304-3932(01)00102-7230J.A.Wachter/JournalofMonetaryEconomics49(2002)229–233realisticmodels,wearetryingforaccurateones.Ultimatelymodels
8、arebetterifthey1makebetterpredictions,notbecausetheyaremorerealistic.Thisisavaluablepointtokeepinmindasonepondersthehugearrayoffactsassembledbyexperimentalpsychologistsovertheyears.Nonetheless,aficionadosofbehavioralfinancemightres
