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1、ChaostheoryinpredictingsurgewaterlevelsintheNorthSeaD.P.SolomatineInternationalInstituteforInfrastructural,HydraulicandEnvironmentalEngineering,Delft,TheNetherlands.Email:sol@ihe.nlC.J.RojasInternationalInstituteforInfrastructural,HydraulicandEnvironmentalEngineeri
2、ng,Delft,TheNetherlandsS.VelickovInternationalInstituteforInfrastructural,HydraulicandEnvironmentalEngineering,Delft,TheNetherlandsJ.C.WüstNorthSeaDirectorate,P.O.Box5807,2280HVRijswijk,TheNetherlandsABSTRACT:Theproblemofpredictingsurgewaterlevelsisimportantforship
3、guidanceandnavigation.ThedatacollectedinthecoastalwatersoftheNetherlands(HookofHolland)isanalysedwithanobjectiveofmakingsuchprediction.Itwasfoundthatthecorrelationbetweendataonsurge,temperature,airpressureandwindisnotsufficienttorelyonlyontheinput-output(connection
4、ist)modelslikeneuralnetworks.Itappearedthatthesurgetimeseriesinitselfhasenoughinformationtomakepredictions.TheappliedlinearpredictionmethodsincludingautocorrelationandARIMAmodelscouldnotprovidesufficientaccuracy.Featuresofchaoticbehaviourwereidentifiedinsurge,andme
5、thodsofchaostheorywereapplied.Thepredictionsarequiteaccurate(RMSEis3.6cmfor1hour,and6.1cmfor3hours).Possibletechniquesallowingforincreaseofthepredictionaccuracyandhorizon(waveletanalysis,dataminingtechniques)werealsoidentified.1INTRODUCTIONChaotic(highlysensitiveto
6、initialconditions)behaviourofmanysystemswasAsanopeningtohislecture,EdwardLorenz,observedbymanyresearchersforanumberofEmeritusprofessorofmeteorologyatMITdecades,butwasfirstdescribedassuchbyholdsapieceofpaperabovethestageandLorenz(1963).In1961hediscoveredthegentlylet
7、sitgo,watchingitleisurelyfloatmanifestationofchaoticbehaviourwhenhedowntotheground.Lorenzrepeatsthewasworkingwithcomputermodelsofweatherexperimentstartingfromseeminglythesameprediction.Itappearedthatthemodelhewasplace,andthepaperfallsagain,landinginausingwasextreme
8、lysensitivetoasmallchangedifferentplaceontheground.Thisservesaninoneoftheparameters-achangefromillustrationofthetheoryofchaos.0.506127to0.506lead
