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1、ChaosTheoryTamedGarnettP.WilliamsUSGeologicalSurvey(Ret.)JOSEPHHENRYPRESSWashington,D.C.1997JOSEPHHENRYPRESS2101ConstitutionAvenue,NWWashington,DC20418TheJOSEPHHENRYPRESS,animprintoftheNATIONALACADEMYPRESS,wascreatedbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesanditsaffiliatedinstitutionswiththe
2、goalofmakingbooksonscience,technology,andhealthmorewidelyavailabletoprofessionalsandthepublic.JosephHenrywasoneofthefoundersoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesandaleaderofearlyAmericanscience.Anyopinions,findings,conclusions,orrecommendationsexpressedinthisvolumearethoseoftheauthorandd
3、onotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoritsaffiliatedinstitutions.LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber97-73862InternationalStandardBookNumber0-309-06351-5Additionalcopiesofthisbookareavailablefrom:JOSEPHHENRYPRESS/NATIONALACADEMYPRESS2101ConstitutionAvenue,NWWa
4、shington,DC204181-800-624-6242(phone)1-202-334-3313(phoneinWashingtonDC)1-202-334-2451(fax)VisitourWebsitetoreadandorderbookson-line:http://www.nap.eduCopyright©1997GarnettP.Williams.Allrightsreserved.PublishedbyarrangementwithTaylor&FrancisLtd.Reprinted1999PrintedinGreatBritain.P
5、REFACEVirtuallyeverybranchofthesciences,engineering,economics,andrelatedfieldsnowdiscussesorreferstochaos.JamesGleick's1987book,Chaos:makinganewscienceanda1988one-hourtelevisionprogramonchaosarousedmanypeople'scuriosityandinterest.Therearenowquiteafewbooksonthesubject.Anyonewritin
6、gyetanotherbook,onanytopic,inevitablygoesthroughtheroutineofjustifyingit.Myjustificationconsistsoftworeasons:•Mostbooksonchaos,whilepraiseworthyinmanyrespects,useahighlevelofmath.Thosebookshavebeenwrittenbyspecialistsforotherspecialists,eventhoughtheauthorsoftenlabelthem"introduct
7、ory."Amato(1992)referstoa"culturalchasm"between"thesmallgroupofmathematicallyinclinedinitiateswhohavebeentouting"chaostheory,ontheonehand,andmostscientists(and,Imightadd,"everybodyelse''),ontheother.Therearerelativelyfewbooksforthosewholackastrongmathematicsandphysicsbackgroundand
8、whomightwishtoexplorechaosinapart
