working paper- research series a model with explicit expectations for belgiumnew

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1、WORKINGPAPER-RESEARCHSERIESAMODELWITHEXPLICITEXPECTATIONSFORBELGIUM_______________________________()PhilippeJeanfils*TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBankofBelgium.TheauthorisverygratefultoMichelDombrechtforth

2、efruitfuldiscussionstheyhadandfortheextremelyhelpfulcommentsthathaveledtosignificantimprovementsinthispaper.HealsowishestothankDanielDesieforhiscarefulmanagementofthehistoricaldatabank.(*)NationalBankofBelgium,ResearchDepartment,philippe.jeanfils@nbb.beWORKINGPAPERNo.4-

3、MARCH20001EditorialDirectorJanSmets,MemberoftheBoardofDirectorsoftheNationalBankofBelgiumStatementofpurpose:Thepurposeoftheseworkingpapersistopromotethecirculationofresearchresults(ResearchSeries)andanalyticalstudies(DocumentsSeries)madewithintheNationalBankofBelgiumorp

4、resentedbyoutsideeconomistsinseminars,conferencesandcolloquiaorganisedbytheBank.Theaimistherebytoprovideaplatformfordiscussion.TheopinionsarestrictlythoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBankofBelgium.TheWorkingPapersareavailableonthewebsiteoft

5、heBank:http://www.nbb.beIndividualcopiesarealsoavailableonrequestto:NATIONALBANKOFBELGIUMDocumentationServiceboulevarddeBerlaimont14B-1000BrusselsImprint:ResponsibilityaccordingtotheBelgianlaw:JeanHilgers,MemberoftheBoardofDirectors,NationalBankofBelgium.Copyright©Natio

6、nalBankofBelgiumReproductionforeducationalandnon-commercialpurposesispermittedprovidedthatthesourceisacknowledged.ISSN:1375-680X.2WORKINGPAPERNo.4-MARCH2000ABSTRACTThispaperpresentsanewquarterlymacroeconometricmodeloftheBelgianeconomy.Itisintendedtocontributetoexistinga

7、nalyticalworkcoveringthespecifictransmissionmechanismsoftheeuroareamonetarypolicyintheBelgianeconomy.Italsocontributestotheforecastexercisesandtotheirriskanalysis.FinallyitisalsousedtoanalysetheconsequencesofspecificBelgianshocks.Themodelissmall-scaleandbasedonrecentmac

8、roeconomictheory.Themodel'sdynamicsnotonlyallowforthelaggedadjustmentsfromeconomicagentsduetotransactioncostst