Intern Summary Report.pdf

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1、ChinaSugarConsumptionFinalReportInyear2010,China’sindividualsugarconsumptionis10.3kg,andsugarsubstituteconsumptionis5.5kg.Atthesameperiod,worldaveragelevelis24kgand15.8kg.ObviouslysweetenerconsumptioninChinaiscurrentlyatarelativelylowlevelandpromisedtoincrease

2、rapidlytogetherwithChina’sboomingeconomyandrisingdomesticdemand.1.MacroAnalysisChinamayexperiencesimilardevelopingpathasdevelopedcountrylikeUSA,JapanandSouthKorea.Resource:UNFAOUSAandJapan’ssugarconsumptionreachedtoahighpointbefore1970s.Howeverhistoricalhighsu

3、garpricethattimehadsugarconsumerstoturntosugarsubstitute.FluctuationinSouthKoreaissmallerbecauseofitsunsaturateddomesticmarket.Wearefacinganother“1970s”accordingtoChina’shistoricalsugarpricedata.OurpresentsweetenerconsumingstructureassemblesSouthKoreathattime.

4、Consideringsimilareatinghabitatsinthetwocountries,ChinacouldfollowthesamepathofKorea,whichmeanssugaranditssubstitutewouldwelcomequickincreaseandthenfluctuatearoundarelativelystablestatuswhenarrivingtothepeak.世界部分国家（地区）人均年消费白砂糖量2006Unit:Kg国家（地区）消费量国家（地区）消费量国家（地

5、区）消费量全世界23.65中美洲42.1韩国18.7欧洲36.9南美洲46.4朝鲜1.9挪威41.7巴西55.6新加坡93瑞典44.4智利49.2马来西亚51.1乌克兰35.2亚洲13.2非洲13.9欧盟38.9印度15埃及32.7北美洲33.6中国6.6毛里求斯36.6加拿大40.4中国台湾23.9卢旺达0.5美国32.9中国香港31大洋洲47.1古巴42.1泰国29.6澳大利亚54.3墨西哥43日本19.6新西兰60.4Resource:CSALongtermpictureofsugarconsumptioni

6、ndevelopedareaslikeTaiwan,JapanandSouthKoreaindicatesthat20kgisareasonablefuturesteadypointofChina.Ifthisstands,Chinaispromisedtoimportatleast11000kmtofsugarthattimeunderthemostpositiveproductionof16612kmt.Resource:UNFAOPercentageofsubstituteintotalsweetenerdi

7、ffersbetweenSouthKoreaandJapan.InSouthKoreaitishigherbecausethecountrycompletelydependsonimportedsugarwhileJapanitselfcouldprovideabout40%oftotaldemandsothatitsratioisonly35%.Chinaismorepossibletotake35%ratioforwearealsoalargeproducingcountry(over50%canbesuppo

8、rtedbyitself)andsubstitutes,likecornsugars,maysufferhighcostconsideringChina’sshortageofcorn(wehavebeentransferredfromacornexportcountrytoimportcountry).Basedonthoseestimatedfigure