constraints with respect to the belief network相对于信念网络约束

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1、ConstraintswithRespecttotheHDBeliefNetworkAfterthedependencygraphhasbeen,definedinthenextsteptheconstraintswithrespecttothecontentsoftheprobabilitytablehadtobespecified.Themainsourceforderivingtheconstraintswasthediseasefileitself,aswellasinformationgatheredfromameetingwithaHuntingtondiseas

2、eexpert.ThissectiondiscussestheproblemsinusingtheknowledgefromthesetwosourcestodesignGBBN33.(C0)“PriorofHuntingtondiseaseisbetween3/100000and7/100000.”InthefollowingHDrepresentstheeventofbecomingHD-phenotypicalinthelifetime.”0.00003

3、on’sCAG-repeatsarebelow35;thatimpliesthatifgenetictesting;r10_35isequivalenttotheeventoftestingnegativefortheHD-mutation.“ThefactthatHDisconstrainedalsoconstrainstheprobabilityforapositiveHD-mutation-test(1-r10_35),whoseprobabilityshouldbeslightlylargerbecauseofthepossibilityofpartialpenetr

4、ace”:(C1a)0.00003<=P(HD)<(1-r10_35)(C1b)(1-r10_35)<0.0001(higherthan0.00007becauseofpartialpenetrance)(C2)“Thereisnooccurrenceofthediseasewith10-35CAGrepeats”P(HD

5、r10_35)=0(C3)“ThereisareducedpenetranceofHDinthe36-41range”0.87

6、r36_41)<0.96(C4)“ThereisastrongpenetranceofHDinthehigherran

7、ges”0.96

8、42_47)

9、r48_120)<1.0(C5)Theconstraintslistedheredealwiththeimportanceofdifferentsymptomgroups,namelyChoreaandpsychiatricdisturbances,andabnormalitiesincognition.(C5a)“ChoreaisquitesuggestiveforHD”0.4>P(HD

10、Chorea)>0.1(C5b)“Psychiatricdisturbanceshavesomesignificancefordiagn

11、osingHD”P(HD

12、Psy_Dist)>0.01(C5c)“ChoreaissignificantlymoresuggestiveforHDdiseasethanpsychiatricdisturbances,andpsychiatricdisturbancesaresignificantlymoresuggestiveforHDthanabnormalitiesincognition.”(C5c1)P(Abn_Cog

13、notHD)>P(Psy_Dist

14、notHD)>P(Chorea

15、notHD)(C5c2)P(Chorea

16、HD)>P(Psy_Dist

17、HD)(C5

18、c3)P(HD

19、Chorea)>2.2*P(HD

20、Psy_Dist)(C5c4)P(HD

21、Psy_Dist)>3*P(HD

22、Abn_Cog)(C5d)“IndiagnosingHD,theevidenceofbothPsy_DistandAbn_Cogpresentisapprox.equivalenttotheevidenceofsolelyChoreabeingpresent(theproductofprobability-multipliersofPsy_DistandAbn_Cogarewith