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1、ASIAEXJAPANChinaOnshoreOilServicesADecadeofStructuralGrowthAheadInitiatingontheChineseindependentoilservicesectorWeinitiatecoverageontheChineseindependentoilfieldservicesectorwithOutperformratingsonPetro-king,Honghua,Anton,HilongandSPT(inorderofpreference)a
2、ndreiterateourOutperformratingonLondon-listedGrekaDrilling.AnimmenselybullishindustrybackdropOuranalysisshowsthatChinaneedstoalmosttrebleitsproducingonshorewellInsidecountoverthenexttenyearstokeepoilandgasimportdependenciesatanacceptablebasescenariointhefac
3、eofrisinglocaldemandandmaturefieldADecadeofStructuralGrowthAhead2declines.Againstthisbullishbackdrop,theoilcoSOE‟sareembracingInvestmentcasesummaries10outsourcing,incrementalwellsaremoretechnicallydemanding,clientsChinawellstotripleintenyears.18increasingly
4、needaone-stop-shopservice,andshaleactivitiesarepoisedtoFivefurtherdrivers:outsourcing,„high-grow.ThesedynamicsallplaystraightintothehandsofChina‟ssmallbutfastend‟,shale,IPM&overseas27growingindependentOFSsector.WeforecastthecombinedrevenuesofAnton,Strategy–
5、seekhigh-endgasandPetro-kingandSPTtoalmostquadrupleby2020.integratedservices35TightandchallenginggastheplacetobeComparingside-by-side40Valuation–39%sectorupside,137%Withinagreatoverallindustryenvironmentweseethemostbullishgrowth„blue-sky‟upside49prospectsin
6、tightgas(non-shale),challengingconventionalgas(high-pressure/temperature,highH2S),integratedprojectmanagementand,potentially,shaleAppendix1:OilServices10161gas.Petro-King71Honghua98Petro-king,HonghuaandAntonareourtoppicksAntonOilfield131Petro-kingandAntonar
7、eextremelywellplacedtocontinuedelivering30%+HilongHolding160China-frack-drivennetincomegrowth,with2013momentumfavouringPetro-SPTEnergy190kingasourtoppick.HonghuahasonshorerigdemandgrowthandagrowingGrekaDrilling218oilfieldservicebusinessdriving60%2013NIgrowt
8、handlonger-termupsidefromjack-upconstruction.SPThasasimilar2013growthandROEoutlooktoAntonbutisalesscompelling“Kazakhoil”storyratherthanaChinafrackingOrderofpreferenceplay,fornow.Hilonghasupsidebutlower
