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1、PredictingInformationSpreadinginTwitterTauhidR.Zaman∗RalfHerbrichDepartmentofElectricalEngineeringandComputerScienceMicrosoftResearchLtd.MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,UKCambridge,MArherb@microsoft.comzlisto@mit.eduJurgenvanGaelDavidSternMicrosoftResearch
2、Ltd.MicrosoftResearchLtd.Cambridge,UKCambridge,UKjvangael@microsoft.comdstern@microsoft.comAbstractWepresentanewmethodologyforpredictingthespreadofinformationinaso-cialnetwork.WefocusontheTwitternetwork,whereinformationisintheformof140charactermessagescalledtweets,and
3、informationisspreadbyusersfor-wardingtweets,apracticeknownasretweeting.Usingdataofwhoandwhatwasretweeted,wetrainaprobabilisticcollaborativefiltermodeltopredictfutureretweets.Wefindthatthemostimportantfeaturesforpredictionaretheidentityofthesourceofthetweetandretweeter.O
4、urmethodologyisquiteflexibleandbeusedasabasisforotherpredictionmodelsinsocialnetworks.1IntroductionDeterminingwhoisinfluentialinanetworkorhowmanypeopleapieceofinformationreachesisveryimportantinmanydifferentfields.Forexample,onlineadvertiserscouldusethisinformationforeffi
5、cienttargetedmarketingcampaigns.Mediacompaniescouldlearnhowtoeffectivelygeneratebuzzfornewfilms,shows,ormusicians.Politicalactiongroupscouldlearningwhotheyshouldtrytoinfluenceinordertospreadtheirmessageasfaraspossible.WiththeenormousgrowthinsocialnetworkingsitessuchasTw
6、itterandFacebook,thereisnowanampleamountofdataavailableforlearninghowinformationspreadsatamicro-level.Onethenneedstounderstandtheproperwaytoutilizethisdatainordertopredictfutureinformationspreadingpatterns.Inthiswork,wewillfocusonpredictinginformationspreadinginTwitte
7、r.Twitterisamicroblog-gingservicethatallowsuserstoshareinformationintheformof140charactermessagescalledtweets.InTwitter,auserhasfollowerswhowillreceiveanytweetpostedbytheuser,andausercanfollowotherusers.TheTwitternetworkiscomprisedofthefollower/followingrelationships.
8、InformationcanspreadinTwitterintheformofretweets,whicharetweetsthathavebeenforwardedbyausertohisorherfollowers.Aretweetiside
