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1、SizeandDynasticDecline:ThePrincipal-AgentProbleminLateImperialChina1700-1850Tuan-HweeSng∗October4,2011AbstractThispaperarguesthatonereasonforChina’srelativeeconomicdeclineinthe19thcenturywasitssize.Arulergoverningabigcountryfacesasevereprincipal-agentprob-lem.Givenhismonitoringdifficulties
2、,hisagentshavestrongincentivestoextortfromthetaxpayers,especiallythepoliticallyweakones.Topreventover-exploitationthatcouldfomentrebellion,therulerhastokeeptaxeslow.Theresultistheparadoxoflowstaterevenuedespiteaheavytaxburdenonthepoor.Economicgrowthcouldfurtherexacer-batethesituationasit
3、increasestheincentivesforcorruption.IapplythismodeltolateimperialChinaandfindthatitspredictionsarewellsupportedbyempiricalevidence.TheQingstatetaxedlightlyandofficiallandtaxburdenswereespeciallylowinregionsfarfromthecapital.Furthermore,thefiscalandmanagerialcapacityoftheQingdynastybe-gantoco
4、ntractsteadilyduringtheprosperous18th-century,sowingtheseedsforChina’ssocio-economicproblemsofthe19th-century.(JELN15,N45,O43)∗NiehausCenterforGlobalization&Governance,PrincetonUniversity,RobertsonHall441A,Princeton,NJ08544.Email:tsng@princeton.edu.ThispaperisarevisedversionofChapter2ofm
5、ydissertation,writtenunderthesupervisionofJoelMokyr,DavidAusten-Smith,MatthiasDoepke,andMelissaMacauley.Iamindebtedtothemfortheirguidanceandencouragement.IreceivedmanyhelpfulcommentsfromseminarparticipantsattheNationalUniversityofSingapore,PekingUniversity,NorthwesternUniversity,Universi
6、tyofMichigan,HongKongUniversityofScience&Technology,WilliamsCollege,CaliforniaStateUniversityatFullerton,WorldBank,andUniversitatPompeuFabraaswellasconferenceparticipantsatthe2009EconomicHistoryAssociationAnnualMeetingpostersession,the2010MidwestEconomicAssociationAnnualMeeting,the2011As
7、ia-PacificEconomicandBusinessHistoryConference,the2011CliometricsConference,andthe2011NBERChinaConference.DayiSun,Shiu-LinTsai,YanfengWang,andBiaoXiangprovidedhelptoaccessoriginaldocumentsandotherdata.FinancialsupportfromtheUniversityResearchGrantsCommitteeatNorthwesternUn
