Vaclav Smil - Global Catastrophes and Trends_ the next 50 years (2008, MIT Press)

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1、GlobalCatastrophesandTrendsAlsobyVaclavSmilChinasEnergyEnergyintheDevelopingWorld(editor,withW.E.Knowland)EnergyAnalysisinAgriculture(withP.NachmanandT.V.LongII)BiomassEnergiesTheBadEarthCarbonNitrogenSulfurEnergyFoodEnvironmentEnergyinChinasModernizationGeneralEnergeticsChinasEnv

2、ironmentalCrisisGlobalEcologyEnergyinWorldHistoryCyclesofLifeEnergiesFeedingtheWorldEnrichingtheEarthTheEarthsBiosphereEnergyattheCrossroadsthCreatingthe20CenturythTransformingthe20CenturyEnergy:ABeginnersGuideEnergyinNatureandSocietyOil:ABeginnersGuideGlobalCatastrophesandTrendsT

3、heNext50YearsVaclavSmilTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England©2008MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissi

4、oninwritingfromthepublisher.Forinformationaboutspecialquantitydiscounts,pleaseemailspecial_sales@mitpress.mit.eduThisbookwassetinSabonbySNPBest-setTypesetterLtd.,HongKong.PrintedonrecycledpaperandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataSmil,Va

5、clav.Globalcatastrophesandtrends:thenextfiftyyears/VaclavSmil.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-262-19586-7(hardcover:alk.paper)1.Naturaldisasters.2.Environmentalriskassessment.I.Title.GB5014.S582008363.34—dc22200704667510987654321ContentsPreface:WhattoExpect

6、vii1How(Not)toLookAhead12FatalDiscontinuities9NaturalCatastrophes13EncounterswithExtraterrestrialObjects16VolcanicMega-eruptionsandCollapses28InfluenzaPandemics38ViolentConflicts49TransformationalWars50TerroristAttacks58ImaginableSurprises663UnfoldingTrends71EnergyTransitions75Domin

7、antFuels,EnduringPrimeMovers77Solar(Nuclear?)Civilization82NewWorldOrder91EuropesPlace92JapansDecline102IslamsChoice110RussiasWay120ChinasRise129TheUnitedStatesRetreat141PlaceonTop153DominanceandDecline154GlobalizationandInequality163viContents4EnvironmentalChange171GlobalWarminga

8、ndItsConsequences172RisingTempera