区域耕地资源安全预警的研究——以毫州市为例

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1、摘要IIAbstractCultivatedlandresourcesisthemostvaluablematerialfoundationformaintainingtheecologicalentirement，survivalanddevelopment9fthehumanbeings．Inrecentdecades，withtherapiddevelopmentofoursocietyandeconomy，allkindsofconstructhaveoccupiedlotsofcultivatedland，especiallyhigh—qualitycult

2、ivatedland，whichmakesthequantityofcultivatedlandkeptonincreasingandthequalitydecreasing．Againstthebackground，conductingearlywarningofcultivatedlandresourcessecurityisofgreatsignificanceinensuringChina’Sfoodsecurity，promotingtherationalallocationofcultivatedlandresourcesandalleviatingthe

3、contradictionbetweenhuamansandland．Onthebasisofdrawinglessonsfromforeignanddomestictheories，researchmethodsandresearchfruits，thepaper,fromtherespectiveoftheconceptsandconnotationofcultivatedlandresourcessecurity,attemptstoestablishtheearlywamingsystemfromthefollowingthreeaspectsofcultiv

4、atedland：quantitysecurity,qualitysecurityandsociety-economicsecurity．ItalsohasmadesstudyofBozhoucitytoearlywarnofitscultivatedlandresoucessecurityintheyear2015．(1)Forcastingthepressureindexofregionalcultivatedland．Onthebasisofthedataaboutthecultivatedlandareas，foodproductivityandpopulat

5、ionchangesduring2000—2009ofBozhou，thisdissertation，throughrelatedindexforcast，hascalculatedtherealpercapitacultivatedlandareaandtheleastpercapitacultivatedlandareain2015，italsointroducedthepressureindexmodelofcultivatedlandtoprobethepressureofcultivatedlandofBozhoucityin2015．Theresearch

6、indicatesthatthecultivatedlandofBozhouin2015hasnoobviouspressure，foodproductioncannotonlymeetthedemandsofeconomicdevelopmentandgrowingpopulation，嬲wellasalargesurplusforAnhuiProvincetomakecontributionsforthewholecountry．(2)Studyonearlywarningofregionalcultivatedlandresourcessecurity．Firs

7、tly,establishingtheearlywarningsystemtomakeawarningscoreofvariousindeces；secondly,usingthefuzzycomprehensiveevaluationtoconstructthewarningmodel，SOastodeterminethesafetylevelofBozhouin2015．Theresearchindicatesthatthelandresourcessafetyaccountsfor74．17％and25．83％incaseofsmallandm