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1、NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIESTHEGREATRECESSION:ASELF-FULFILLINGGLOBALPANICPhilippeBacchettaEricvanWincoopWorkingPaper19062http://www.nber.org/papers/w19062NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH1050MassachusettsAvenueCambridge,MA02138May2013Wegratefullyacknowledgefinancialsupportfr
2、omtheNationalScienceFoundation(grantSES-0649442),theBankardFundforPoliticalEconomy,theHongKongInstituteforMonetaryResearch,theNationalCentreofCompetenceinResearch"FinancialValuationandRiskManagement"(NCCRFINRISK),andtheERCAdvancedGrant#269573.Theviewsexpressedhereinar
3、ethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications
4、.©2013byPhilippeBacchettaandEricvanWincoop.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including©notice,isgiventothesource.TheGreatRecession:ASelf-FulfillingGlobalPanicPhilippeBacchettaandEr
5、icvanWincoopNBERWorkingPaperNo.19062May2013JELNo.E32,F40,F41,F44ABSTRACTWhilethe2008-2009financialcrisisoriginatedintheUnitedStates,wewitnessedsteepdeclinesinoutput,consumptionandinvestmentofsimilarmagnitudesaroundtheglobe.Thisraisestwoquestions.First,giventheobserved
6、stronghomebiasingoodsandfinancialmarkets,whatcanaccountfortheremarkableglobalbusinesscyclesynchronicityduringthisperiod?Second,whatcanexplainthedifferencerelativetopreviousrecessions,wherewewitnessedfarweakerco-movement?Toaddressthesequestions,wedevelopatwo-countrymod
7、elthatallowsforself-fulfillingbusinesscyclepanics.Weshowthatabusinesscyclepanicwillnecessarilybesynchronizedacrosscountriesaslongasthereisaminimumlevelofeconomicintegration.Moreover,weshowthatseveralfactorsgeneratedparticularvulnerabilitytosuchaglobalpanicin2008:tight
8、credit,thezerolowerbound,unresponsivefiscalpolicyandincreasedeconomicintegration.PhilippeBacchettaFacultyofBusinessandEconom
