Causal reasoning in financial reporting and voluntary disclosure.pdf

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1、Accounting,OrganizationsandSociety36(2011)209–225ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectAccounting,OrganizationsandSocietyjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/aosCausalreasoninginfinancialreportingandvoluntarydisclosurea,⇑b,1a,2LisaKoonce,NickSeybert,JamesSmithaDepartmentofAccounting,CBA4

2、m.202,McCombsSchoolofBusiness,TheUniversityofTexas,Austin,TX78712,UnitedStatesbDepartmentofAccounting,RobertH.SmithSchoolofBusiness,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,MD20742,UnitedStatesarticleinfoabstractCausalreasoninginvolvesunderstandingthecauseofeventsthathavealreadyhappened(i.e.,diag

3、nosis)aswellaspredictingwhichfutureeventswilloccur(i.e.,prediction).Althoughthistypeofreasoningisanimportantpartoffinancialreportingandvoluntarydisclosure,verylittleresearchhasreliedonitasabasisfordevelopingandinterpretingtestableresearchideas.Thepurposeofthispaperistwofold:First,wereviewk

4、eytheoriesfrompsychologythatpertaintocausalreasoning.Second,weidentifyhowthesetheoriescanbesuccessfullyusedbybehavioralresearchersinterestedinfinancialreportingandvoluntarydisclosure.Ó2011ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.1.IntroductionThepurposeofthispaperistwofold.First,wereviewkeytheoriesfr

5、ompsychologythatpertaintocausalrea-4Financialprofessionalsroutinelyengageinavarietyofsoning.Thesetheoriesapplytothetwodistinctcompo-tasksthatinvolvecausalreasoning.Thesetasksinvolvenentsofthistypeofreasoning—namely,diagnosisandunderstandingthecauseofeventsthathavealreadyhap-prediction.Dia

6、gnosisinvolvesidentifyingthecauseofanob-penedaswellaspredictingwhichfutureeventswilloccur.servedeventbyaskingthequestion,‘‘whydidthiseventForexample,analystsmustascertainwhycompaniesbeathappen?’’Predictioninvolvesconsideringacausaleventormissthemostrecentconsensusforecast.Firmmanagersandi

7、dentifyingtheeffectoroutcomethatitmaycreateinmustexplainhistoricalearningsasreportedtothecapitalthefuturebyaskingthequestion,‘‘whateventwillhap-markets.Investorsmustpredictthelikelyfutureperfor-pen?’’Second,weidentifyhowthesetheoriescanbesuc-manceofcompaniesinwhicht