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1、Cognition119(2011)403–418ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectCognitionjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/COGNITThementalrepresentationofcausalconditionalreasoning:Mentalmodelsorcausalmodelsabc,⇑NilufaAli,NickChater,MikeOaksfordaDepartmentofPsychology,AngliaRuski
2、nUniversity,Cambridge,UKbBehaviouralSciencesGroup,WarwickBusinessSchool,WarwickUniversity,Coventry,UKcDepartmentofPsychologicalSciences,BirkbeckCollege,UniversityofLondon,London,UKarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Inthispaper,twoexperimentsarereportedinvestigatingthen
3、atureofthecognitiverep-Received6May2010resentationsunderlyingcausalconditionalreasoningperformance.Thepredictionsofcau-Revised2February2011salandlogicalinterpretationsoftheconditionaldivergesharplywheninferencesinvolvingAccepted4February2011pairsofconditionals—suchasi
4、fP1thenQandifP2thenQ—areconsidered.Fromacausalperspective,thecausaldirectionoftheseconditionalsiscritical:arethePicausesofQ;orsymptomscausedbyQ.TherichvarietyofinferencepatternscannaturallybemodelledKeywords:byBayesiannetworks.ApairofcausalconditionalswhereQisaneffect
5、correspondstoaCausalmodels‘‘collider’’structurewherethetwocauses(Pi)convergeonacommoneffect.Incontrast,BayesianNetworksConditionalinferenceapairofcausalconditionalswhereQisacausecorrespondstoanetworkwheretwoeffectsMentalmodels(Pi)divergefromacommoncause.Verydifferentp
6、redictionsaremadebyfullyexplicitorDiscountinginitialmentalmodelsinterpretations.Thesepredictionsweretestedintwoexperiments,Augmentingeachofwhichyieldeddatamostconsistentwithcausalmodeltheory,ratherthanwithmentalmodels.Ó2011ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.1.Introductionk
7、nowledgeinanyaccountofthecontentsoflongterm1memory.Thestudyofhumanverbalreasoninghaspro-Whatisthenatureofthecognitiverepresentationsvidedvariousanswerstothisquestion,fromformalsyntac-underlyinghumanconditionalinference?Conditionalticrules(Braine&O’Brien,1998;Rips,1994
8、),semanticinferenceisreasoningaboutwhatisoftenrepresentedinrepresentationslikementalmodels(Johnson-Laird&Byrne,Englishbyif..
