Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya.pdf

Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya.pdf

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时间:2019-02-28

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1、JournalofEnvironmentalManagement92(2011)982e993ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectJournalofEnvironmentalManagementjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvmanProspectivechangesinirrigationwaterrequirementscausedbyagriculturalexpansionandclimatechangesintheeasternarcmountain

2、sofKenyaEduardoEijiMaeda*,PetriK.E.Pellikka,BarnabyJ.F.Clark,MikaSiljanderDepartmentofGeosciencesandGeography,UniversityofHelsinki,GustafHällströminkatu2,00014Helsinki,FinlandarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Waterresourcesandlandusearecloselylinkedwitheachotherandwithregionalcl

3、imate,assemblingReceived1May2010averycomplexsystem.TheunderstandingoftheinterconnectingrelationsinvolvedinthissystemisanReceivedinrevisedformessentialstepforelaboratingpublicpoliciesthatcaneffectivelyleadtothesustainableuseofwater11October2010resources.Inthisstudy,anintegratedmo

4、dellingframeworkwasassembledinordertoinvestigateAccepted1November2010potentialimpactsofagriculturalexpansionandclimatechangesonIrrigationWaterRequirements(IWR)Availableonline15December2010intheTaitaHills,Kenya.Theframeworkcomprisedalandusechangesimulationmodel,areferenceevapotra

5、nspirationmodelandsyntheticprecipitationdatasetsgeneratedthroughaMonteCarlosimu-Keywords:lation.Inordertogenerateplausibleclimatechangescenarios,outputsfromGeneralClimateModelsTaitahillsWaterresourceswereusedasreferencetoperturbingtheMonteCarlosimulations.Theresultsindicatethatt

6、hroughoutSimulationmodelsthenext20yearsthelowavailabilityofarablelandsinthehillswilldriveagriculturalexpansiontoareasAgriculturalexpansionwithhigherIWRinthefoothills.Ifcurrenttrendspersist,agriculturalareaswilloccupyroughly60%ofClimatechangethestudyareaby2030.Thisexpansionwillin

7、creasebyapproximately40%theannualwatervolumenecessaryforirrigation.Climatechangemayslightlydecreasecrops’IWRinAprilandNovemberby2030,whileinMayasmallincreasewilllikelybeobserved.Theintegratedassessmentoftheseenvi-ronmentalchangesallowedaclearidentificationofpriorityregionsforland

8、useallocationpoliciesandwaterresourcesmanagemen

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