上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析

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1、32ज11௹ࣜ࠶৘Vol.32đNo.112012୍11ᄅECONOMICGEOGRAPHYNov.đ2012ഈٳࢳٳაෘҩ٢ஆฏٮཨჷି๙ࢌ൧ݚ༅¸໱ष࿰đޅґޞđ຦݉ྍđᅦ（1.复旦大学公共管理与公共政策创新基地，中国上海200433；2.合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院，中国安徽合肥230009；3.复旦大学人口研究所，中国上海200433；4.复旦大学环境科学系，中国上海200433）ᅋေğ၇ऌIPCCֆᆷଲБۡđၛିჷཨູؓའđҩෘ2000i2010୍ഈݚ൧ࢌ๙ᄎൻြିჷཨٮฏஆ٢ਈaದनฏஆ٢ਈၛࠣฏஆ٢

2、఼э߄౴൝bၛ2000୍ູࠎ୍đҐႨLMDIٳࢳٚمđؓഈݚ൧ࢌ๙ᄎൻਵთିჷཨٮฏஆਈэ߄ࣉྛ఼ჷିᇏఃđ൝౴ࢆ༯ӯุᆜ఼٢ஆฏ๙ࢌ①ğૼіݔࢲb༅ٳࢳٳ༯ࢆఏᇶေቔႨbିჷࢲܒؓ՜ࣉฏஆ٢఼༯ࢆቔႨࢠ೐đ֌Ⴕᄹ఼౴൝b②ࢌ๙ฏஆ٢ਈ҂؎ᄹࡆbఃᇏದ१ඔਈބದनGDP൓ᇔіགྷູᆞིႋđఏ՜ࣉቔႨĠିჷ఼Ԣ2004୍ຓनіགྷູڵིႋđఏၝᇅቔႨĠିჷࢲܒ൓ᇔіགྷູڵིႋđؓࡨഒฏஆ٢ႵᇗေቔႨbܱ࡯Սğࢌ๙ᄎൻြĠฏஆݚഈĠ༅ٳࢳٳĠ྘ଆIDMLĠ٢൧ᇏ๭щᅣ໓Ağ઒്ѓང໓12UğোٳğčĎ

3、.FBTVSFNFOUBOE%FDPNQPTJUJPO"OBMZTJTPO$BSCPO&NJTTJPOTPG5SBOTQPSUBUJPO*OEVTUSZJO4IBOHIBJ1234WUKai-yađHECai-hongđWANGGui-xinđZHANGHaoč1.NationalInnovativeInstituteforPublicManagementandPublicPolicyđFudanUniversityđShanghai200433đChinaĠ2.SchoolofResourcesandEn

4、vironmentalEngineeringđHefeiUniversityofTechnologyđHefei230009đAnhuiđChinaĠ3.InstituteofPopulationResearchđFudanUniversityđShanghaiđ200433đChinaĠ4.DepartmentofEnvironmentalScienceandEngineeringđFudanUniversityđShanghai200433đChinaĎ"CTUSBDUOnthebasisofthestatistic

5、aldataoftheIPCCreports,thepapercalculatesthecarbonemissionsfromthetransportationindustryinShanghaiduring2000-2010,andthenanalyzesthetendencyforthechangesofcarbonemissionspercapitaandcarbonemissionintensity.Taking2000asthebaseyear,usingLMDIdecompositionmethod,thech

6、angeofcarbonemissionsfromtrafficenergyconsumptionhasbeendecomposed.Theresultsshow:(1)Thecarbonemissionintensityfromtrafficenergydecreased,withenergyintensityplayingamajorrole.Theeffectofenergystructuretothepromotionofreducingcarbonemissionintensitywasweak,butitapp

7、earedincreasingtrend.(2)Trafficcarbonemissionsincreasedyearbyyear.TheresidentpopulationandpercapitaGDPhadpromotingeffectsonincreasingtrafficcarbonemissions,alwaysproducingpositiveeffect.Except2004,energyintensityalwayshadnegativeeffect.Energystructurealwaysproduce

8、dnegativeeffect,havinganimportantroleforreducingcarbonemissions.,FZXPSETtransportationindustry;carbonemissions;LMDImodel;decompositionanalysis;Shanghai