河北省麻疹疫情时间序列分析

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1、万方数据英文摘要Time—SeriesAnalysisforMeaslesinHebeiProvinceABSTRACTObjective：Bytheintensiveandroughcontrolmeasures，theeliminatemeaslesgoalthatthemeaslesincidencecanbedroptolessthan1／1000，000in2012hasbeenreachedinHebeiprovince．Buttheachievementwasnotkeeped，theincidence

2、hasincreased10timesinthenextyear,andtheincreasewasmorefiercein2014．OnthebasisoftheexistedworkingexperenceinHebeiProvince，thispaperisgoingtoestablishthequantitativeforecastmodelandwarningmechanismwithquantitativeindicatorsformeaslesepidemic，withcoordinatingandgu

3、idingthecurrentworkmethods，toprovideevidencefordevelopingmorefineandeffectivestrategiesandmeasurestotrulyachievethegoalofeliminatingmeasles．Method：TobuildtheARIMAmodelfortheyearlymeaslesincidencefrom1979to2013，thequarterly，monthlyandweeklymeaslescasesfrom2001．1

4、to2014．9byEViews8．0．Thebuildingmodelprocessmainlyincludesthemodelidentification；modelparameterestimationandmodelinspection；forecasting．Toestablishthefourlayerstimeseriesmodelthatisincludingyearly，quarterly，monthlyandweeklymeaslesepidemicforHebeiProvince，inorder

5、toadapttodifferentjobpurposeandmeetthedifferentneedsofthework．Tousethe95％CLforecastingvaluesasmeaslesepidemicearlywarningline，andtoassessthehistoricaldata，alertthecurrentandimpendingepidemicbythewarningline．Results：lThemeaslesepidemicfeathureinHebeiprovinceThem

6、easlesincidencewasonthewavyfallingtrendsince1950inHebeiprovince，buttheincidencewasconsiderablyhighandfluctuatedbefore1979，thenitshowedarelativelylOWlevelandstableafter1979．Therewasapeakandvalleyintheannualmeaslesincidence，thissinglepeakmainlyappearedintheperiod

7、fromMarchtoJune，thehighestpointwasinAprilorMay，and4万方数据英文摘要mainlyinMay．Evenfrom201to2013，theselowerincidencelevelyears，themeaslesepidemichasstillappearedobviousperiodicfeathure．2EstablishingtheyearlyARIMAmodelandusingittoforecastandwamSetupthetimeseriesytbythea

8、nnualmeaslesincidence，afterhavebeentestedasastationaryseries，theidentificatedmodelwasARIMA(1，0，O)．Throughparameter，modelandresidualtest，thefinallyselectedmodelwasARIMA(1，0，O