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1、UniversityofPennsylvaniaScholarlyCommonsMarketingPapers4-1-1984ReviewofDanielKahnemann,PaulSlovic,andAmosTversky(eds.),JudgmentUnderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiasesJ.ScottArmstrongUniversityofPennsylvania,armstrong@wharton.upenn.eduPostprintversion.PublishedinJournalofForecasting,Volume3,I
2、ssue2,April1984,pages235-239.PublisherURL:http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980030211ThispaperispostedatScholarlyCommons.http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/76Formoreinformation,pleasecontactrepository@pobox.upenn.edu.1REVIEWSOFBOOKSONFORECASTINGPrinciplesofForecastingWebSiteDanielK
3、ahneman,PaulSlovic,andAmosTversky(eds.),JudgmentUnderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiases,NewYorkandCambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,1982.Reviewedby:J.ScottArmstrong,TheWhartonSchool,UniversityofPennsylvania;publishedintheJournalofForecasting,3,1984,236-239.Thisbookprovidesaconvenientcollect
4、ionofimportantpapersrelevanttoasubsetofjudgmentalforecasting.Myreviewdiscusses:(i)thescopeofthereadings(ii)theimportanceofthereadings(iii)whatisnew(iv)howthebookisorganized(v)adviceonusingthebook,and(vi)whoshouldreadthebook.Itendswithanoteontheuseofjudgmentalresearch.TheScopeoftheReadings
5、Assumethefollowingproblem:youmustselectasetofkitemsfromapopulationofN,wheretheboundariesofNareill-definedandnocensusofthepopulationisavailable.Howshouldyouproceed?AccordingtotheresearchinJudgmentUnderUncertainty(JUU),decision-makersarepronetonumerouserrorsinsuchtasks.Morespecifically,thep
6、roblemKahneman,Slovic,andTversky(KST)facedwastoselect,fromalargenumberofexistingpapers,thosethatwouldbemostusefultotheirpotentialaudience.AsnearlyasIcantell,theymadetheirselectionsbyunaidedintuition.Asaresult,thebooksuffersfromtheveryproblemsthatthebookdiscusses(e.g.,anchoring,availabilit
7、yandrepresentativeness).TheprefaceofKSTwasvagueaboutthecriteriaforselection.Theydidstate,however,that(p.xii):Inrecentyears,alargebodyofresearchhasbeendevotedtouncoveringjudgmentalheuristicsandexplainingtheireffects.Thepresentvolumeprovidesacomprehensivesampleofthisa
