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1、JudgmentunderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiasesAuthor(s):AmosTverskyandDanielKahnemanSource:Science,NewSeries,Vol.185,No.4157(Sep.27,1974),pp.1124-1131Publishedby:AmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScienceStableURL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/1738360Acces
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6、mentofScienceiscollaboratingwithJSTORtodigitize,preserveandextendaccesstoScience.http://www.jstor.orgoccupationfromalistofpossibilities(forexample,farmer,salesman,airlinepilot,librarian,orphysician)?Howdopeopleordertheseoccupationsfrommosttoleastlikely?In
7、therepresenta-JudgmentunderUncertainty:tivenessheuristic,theprobabilitythatSteveisalibrarian,forexample,isHeuristicsandBiasesassessedbythedegreetowhichheisrepresentativeof,orsimilarto,thestereotypeofalibrarian.Indeed,re-Biasesinjudgmentsrevealsomeheuristi
8、csofsearchwithproblemsofthistypehasshownthatpeopleordertheoccupa-thinkingunderuncertainty.tionsbyprobabilityandbysimilarityinexactlythesameway(1).Thisap-AmosTverskyandDanielKahnemanproachtothejudgmentofprobabilityle
