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ID:32073747
大小:2.47 MB
页数:66页
时间:2019-01-31
《随机森林在电信行业客户流失预测中的应用》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、AbstractItisbecomingfiercerandfiercerthatthecompetitionoftelecomenterprisesinabstractingcustomersandexpandingmarket,withthegrowingpopularityofcommunicationterminals.Accordingtothelatestcostaccountingstructureoftelecomindustry,thecostoflosinganexistingcustomeris5timesasmuchastheprofi
2、tthatanewcustomercanbringabout.Therefore,customerchurnpredictionbecomesthemostimportanttaskinsuchanincreasinglysaturatedmanet.Thedataoftelecomindustriesarealwaysnumemusandincreasingtimely.AsRandomForestmethodcandealwithhugedatasetseffectivelyandhaveagoodperformanceofnoisetolerance,w
3、eintroducethismethodintotheconstructionofthechumpredictionmodelinthispaper,fortheregionalbranchofFujianMobile.Firstly,WebuildarawchumpredictionmodelusingRFmethod.Duringthedataprocessing,WeutilizethedetectionmethodprovidedbyRFmethodtodetecttheabnormalsamples.Comparedtotheothercommoll
4、lyusedalgorithms,themethodbasedontheRFalgorithmisprovedtobemoleeffectiveandlesstimeconsuming.Afterpickingtheabnormalonesoutofthewholecustomersamples,Webuildarandomforesttopredictthechurnpossibilityofcustomers.Comparedtootherexistingmodels,theRFmodelturnouttobemoreaccurate.Furthermor
5、e,withtheproximitymatrixofsamplesprovidedbyRF,wecanobtainthescalingcoordinatesofeachsamplethroughthischaracteristicmapping.Combinedwithtransductioninference,thisthesisproposesaprojectingmethodbasedonthetransductioninferenceandcoordinatesscalingundertheframeworkofRF.Experimentsdemons
6、tratetheeffectivenessandsimplenessoftheproposedmethodfordimensionreduction,andalsoindicatethatitiscapableofmodelinginformationofsamples.Furthermore,Wecombineasuper-ellipsoidK—meansclusteringalgorithm,whichisbasedontheMahalanobisdistance,withtheabovework(shortforHCkmean-in-RF),toimpr
7、ovethegeneralization—errorofcustomerchurnpredictionmodel.Experimentsshowthattheimprovedmodelispmvedtogetabetteraccuracyandexplanatory.Accordingtotheanalysesofpredictionresultsofadvancedmodel,wegivedifferentsuggestionsintermsofdifferentkindsofcustomers.Therefore,itisexpectedthatthepr
8、oposedadvancedchump
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