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1、西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文StudyonFinancialDistressPredictionForListedRealEstateCompaniesSpecialty:MasterofBusinessAdministrationName：ShaoHuiInstructor:Prof.LiLinABSTRACTTherealestateindustrycharacterizedbylongperiod,highrisks,highinvestment,andhighreturnisapillarindustryofnationaleconomyandso
2、cialdevelopmentinourcountry.Inrecentyears,enterpriseshavefacedmoreandmorecomplexandincreasinglyseriousenvironmentalchallengesbecauseofintensecompetition.Theadjustmentandcontrolofgovernment’smacropoliciesisbecomingtighter.Thedebt-to-assetsratioofrealestatedevelopersisabove70%universally.Financia
3、lcrisisinrealestateindustryisgradualincreasing.Theresearchontheearlywarningisveryimportantandhavingpracticalsignificance.Firstly,onthebasisofsummarizingtheforeignanddomesticresearchrelatedtofinancialdistressprediction,thethesisanalyzedthefeaturesoftherealestateindustryaswellasthedefinition,char
4、acteristicsandcausesofthefinancialcrisis.Secondly,usedtheearlywarningtheory,thepaperchosethirty-onevariablesfromfinancialandnon-financialfactorsinthelistedcompanies.Thenextpartwastheoptionsofthesamplesanddata.Fromthesignificantanalysis,fifteenremarkablydistinguishedfinancialfactorswereselecteda
5、stheearlywarningindicators.BasedonthefactoranalysisandthePrinciplecomponents-Logisticregressionanalysis,thethesisconstructedthemodeloffinancialdistressprediction.Thirdly,thepartwasthemodel’stesting,theconclusionandlimitationsoftheresearch.Atlast,thethesispresentedsomemeasuresofhowtopreventfinan
6、cialcrisisintherealestatebusiness.Theempiricalstudyshowsthatthepredictedvariablesmainlyreflectedtheoperationandmanagementstatusofthequotedcompanies.Themodelcanforecast西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文thefinancialcrisisintherealestateindustryaccurately.Thegrowthrateofnetasset,quickratio,per-shareearningsrateofrise
7、,days-salesoutstanding,growthrateofshareholders’equity,earningspershare,cashratioandinventoryturnoverratioarethedominantfactorsinfinancialvariables.Inaspectofthenon-finance,theauditopinionvariablehasacertaindegreeofpredictability.
