基于空间统计和空间相似性理论热带气旋路径的研究

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1、硕士学位论文：基于空间统计和空间相似性理论的热带气旋路径研究AbstractTyphooncycloneisoneofthemostseriousnaturaldisasterforpeople'slifeandproperty,andthegenerationanddevelopmentoftyphooncycloneisaverycomplexprocess.Inrecentyearsthetyphooncyclonefrequencyshowedarisingtrend,sothewaytopredictthefuturetrendofthetyphooncyclon

2、equicklyandaccuratelyismoreandmoreimportantresearchtopicforthemeteorologicaldepartmentanddisasterpreventiondepartment.Spatialstatisticsandspatialsimilaritytheoryhasveryimportanttheoreticalsignificanceandpracticalvalueinanalyzingthehazardassessmentandprediction.Firstly,thispaperintroducesth

3、espatialsimilaritytheoryintheapplicationinthestudyoftropicalcyclones.Andbasedonthetheorytodofurtherresearchonthemostnearestextractionmethodbasedonimproved,searchingthebestsimilarpathoftyphooncyclone.Consideringofspatialsimilarityandthebearing-speedsimilarity,combiningwiththecandidatepath,w

4、egottheforecastingmodelofnumericalforecasttyphooncyclone.Andweverifiedthefeasibilityofthemodelusingexamples.Secondly,didsomepreliminaryresearchontropicalcyclonedata,analyzedtheNorthwestPacifictropicalcyclonesourcedistributionpatternsbasedonspatialpointprocessmodelofthetheoryofprobabilityan

5、dstatistics,andonthisbasis,simulatedtropicalcyclonestartpointdatathathasspatialstatisticalcharacteristicsSimilartothehistoricaltropicalcyclonedatausingtheMarkovChainMonteCarlomethod.Atthesametime,presentsnumericalmodelsimulationpathbasedonthenearestsimilaritytheory,expectingtoimprovetheacc

6、uracyofregionalriskassessmenttoovercomethelimitationoftimeandspaceoftropicalcyclonedata.Finally,theproposedmodelthatthetyphoonforecastnumericalmodelconsideringthespatialsimilarityandthebearing-speedsimilarityisconvertedintoacomputeralgorithmbyobject-orientedprogramminglanguageandgeographic

7、informationsystemsseconddevelopmentoftechnology,anddevelopedtheTyphoonInformationManagementandpredictionsystembasedonGIS.wecarriesonthesimulationusingthehistoricaldataoftropicalcyclones,analysisthefuturechangetendencyoftropicalcyclonesbysearchingandpredicting,