资源描述：
《whatmakesourplanetthirsty-2016美国大学生数学建模竞赛优秀论文》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonlyT1T2T3T445596ProblemChosenEForofficeuseonlyFlF2F3F42016MCM/ICMSummarySheetInabidtoassesswhetheraregionhastheabilitytosupplywatertomeetthedemand,weestablishanevaluationmodelofwater-supplyingabilitybasedonGreyModelTheory.Onth
2、ebasisofpreviousresearch,weselect18indicatorsfromsocial,economic,environmentalandtechnologicalaspects,allofwhichcanaffectaregion^water-supplyingabilitysignificantly.Consideringrelevancyamongindicators,aswellastheirdynamicvariation,weutilizeGreyRelationalAn
3、alysistodeterminetheweightofeveryindicator.Therefore,wedefineCarryingCapacitySustainability(CCS),CarryingCapacityPressure(CCP)andCarryingCapacityIndex(CCI)toevaluatearegion^abilitycomprehensively.WeselectShandong,Chinaasourtargetregioninfollowingresearch.A
4、fteracquiringdataofeveryindicator,wecalculatethevalueofCCIofShandongis1.238in2004,whichisclassifiedtobeoverloaded.Accordingtothescoreofeveryindicator,wegiveexplanationsforwaterscarcityfrombotheconomicandphysicalperspectives.Afterward,basedonGreyPredictionM
5、odel,wemakepredictionofShandong^swatersituationinthefollowing15years.TendencyofCCIshowsimprovementofwater-supplyingability,butthescoresofsomeindicatorsshowthesituationofcitizens'waterusagegoesworse.WenoticePopulationSizeandother6indicatorscontributesmostto
6、water-supplyingabilityinthisregion.Takingthemintoaccount,wedesigninterventionplantargetedatthisregion.Meanwhile,wealsopresenttheeffectsonsurroundingareas,togetherwithstrengthsanddrawbacksofplaninaqualitativeway.WiththehelpofGreyPredictionModelandInterventi
7、onFactorModel,weforecastwatersituationaftertheplaniscarriedoutinthefollowingyearsquantitatively.Comparisonoforiginalpredictedvalueandintervenedvalueillustratethatourplanacceleratetheimprovingprocessofwater-supplyingability,reflectingtheeffectivityandeffici
8、encyofourplan.However,wenoticetherelativebenefitofourplandecreasesinthelongrun.Thissuggestsweneedtodesignnewinterventionplanyearslater.Contents1Introduction21.1Background21.2OurWork22Assumptions33Model33.1Ove
