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1、THEIMPACTOFTRADECONFLICTONDEVELOPINGASIAAbdulAbiad,KristinaBaris,JohnArvinBernabe,DonaldJayBertulfo,ShielaCamingue-Romance,PaulNeilmerFeliciano,MahinthanJosephMariasingham,andValerieMercer-BlackmanNO.566December2018ADBECONOMICSWORKINGPAPERSERIESASIANDEVE
2、LOPMENTBANKADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesTheImpactofTradeConflictonDevelopingAsiaAbdulAbiad,KristinaBaris,JohnArvinBernabe,DonaldJayBertulfo,ShielaCamingue-Romance,PaulNeilmerFeliciano,MahinthanJosephMariasingham,andValerieMercer-BlackmanNo.566
3、December201
4、8AbdulAbiad(aabiad@adb.org)isaneconomicadvisor;MahinthanJosephMariasingham(mmariasingham@adb.org)isastatistician;ValerieMercer-Blackman(vmercerblackman@adb.org)isasenioreconomist;ShielaCamingue-Romance(scamingue@adb.org)isaneconomicsofficer;KristinaBaris
5、(kbaris.consultant@adb.org),JohnArvinBernabe(jbernabe.consultant@adb.org),DonaldJayBertulfo(dbertulfo.consultant@adb.org),andPaulNeilmerFeliciano(pfeliciano.consultant@adb.org)areconsultantsfromtheEconomicResearchandRegionalCooperationDepartment(ERCD)ofth
6、eAsianDevelopmentBank.TheanalysisinthispaperwasusedintheAsianDevelopmentOutlook2018Update.TheteamwouldliketothankparticipantsattheERCDSeminarSeriesforvaluablecomments.Allremainingerrorsareourown.ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANKCONTENTSTABLESANDFIGURESivABSTRACTvI.INT
7、RODUCTION1II.THE2018TRADECONFLICTUNFOLDS2III.THEMODELSETUP5A.ChannelsofImpact5B.TradeConflictScenarios5C.DataandScenarioModeling6D.Input--OutputAnalysis10E.ComparisonwithOtherAnalysesoftheTradeConflict11IV.RESULTS12A.EffectsonGrossDomesticProduct12B.Effects
8、ofExports15C.EffectsonEmployment19D.EffectsonCurrentAccountBalances22V.SENSITIVITYANALYSIS24VI.CONCLUDINGREMARKS26APPENDIX29REFERENCES37TABLES,FIGURES,ANDBOXTABLES1TimingCalculationsforDirectEffectsBasedonTariffs’DatesofEffectivity62DescriptionandSizeofMo
9、deledScenarios93EmploymentEffectsunderWorse-CaseScenario,SelectedEconomies214DescriptionofElasticityAssumptions245ResultsofRobustnessChecksbyTypeofElasticityAssumption25A1TotalBilateralTradeAffectedbytheImplementeda
