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1、SWSResearchCo.LtdisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecurities.99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai
2、+862123297818www.swsresearch.comIndustryResearchBringingChinatotheWorldAfterupgradingoursectorratingtoOverweightinJune2016,bankingstocksachievedbothabsoluteandrelativepositivereturnsin2H16,onthebackofimprovingass
3、etquality.In2017,thesectorreportedabsolutepositivereturns,thankstostabilisedfundamentals.In2018,listedbankspostedrelativepositivereturns,amidrisingstimulusexpectations.However,lookinginto2019,weexpecttheperformanceofbankingstockstobeaffectedbynarrowingnetinterestmargins(NIMs),increasingassetquali
4、tyrisk,andrisingcapitalpressure.Asaresult,wedowngradeoursectorratingfromOverweighttoEqualweight.NarrowingNIMs.In2017,aseriesoftighteningmeasuresledtointerestratehikes.Since2018however,China’smonetarypolicyhasimprovedliquidityintheinterbankmarketandledtodeclininginterbankrates,althoughloanandbondy
5、ieldskeptrisingduetoshadowbankingregulation.Givenadeterioratingloanstructureamidtheeconomicslowdown,weanticipatedownwardpressureonloanandbondyields,whilethedownsidepotentialforinterbankratesremainslimited.Therefore,weexpecttoseenarrowingNIMsin2019.Givenrisingexpectationsofinterestratecutsamidacau
6、tiouseconomicoutlook,wethinkNIMsmaydeclineby7bps,duetoloanrepricingandrigiddemanddepositrates.Increasingassetqualityrisk.WenoteA-sharecompanies’defaultrateandrealnon-performingloan(NPL)ratiokeptdeclining,from11.5%and7.7%in2015to3.2%and2.2%in3Q17,respectively,duetotheimprovedprofitabilityofsectors
7、withexcesscapacity.Since4Q17however,bothratiosgraduallyroseto3.8%and2.6%in3Q18,respectively,duetotightenedregulationsandtradefrictions.OurmacroteamforecastsGDPYoYgrowthtodeceleratefrom6.7%in18Eto6.4%in19E,withatroughat6.2%in1Q19E,duetoweakexportsandinvestmentgrowth.Assumingtotalloansgrowthof12%Yo
8、YandNPLgrowthof30%YoY,weexpecttherealNPLratiotoincreaseto3.2%asofend-2019E.Wealsonoterisingassetqualityuncertaintyfromprivateandmicro-sizedfirms.AccordingtoPBoC,newloansofferedtoprivatecompaniesaccountedfor15%ofnewcorp
