资源描述：
《金融衍生工具黄金期货报告》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在应用文档-天天文库。
1、ThereportofderivativeBriefcontents:1.Fundamentalanalysis1.1Economicanalysis1.2Derivativesanalysis1.3futuresanalysis2.Goldfuturespricingfactors3.Ourcontractselectingandtradingstrategies3.1IntroductiontoGoldFutures3.2MarginofGoldFutures3.3GoldFutures'On-Exchange'3.4Summary3.5Exper
2、ience4.References151.Fundamentalanalysis1.1Economicanalysis2011macroeconomicpolicytone:aproactivefiscalpolicyandprudentmonetarypolicy.Expectedannualeconomicgrowthis9.5%,andannualinflationrateisaround5%.Asoflate2010,China'slocalgovernmentdebtbalanceof10.7trillionyuan,withthecentr
3、algovernmentdebtamountedto6.75trillionyuan,atotalof17.5trillionyuan,accountingforthetotalGDP(39.7trillionyuan)in44%,lowerthanthe"Mayo"cap.Relativetothemajordevelopedcountries,China'scurrentdebtrateisstillatalowlevel.Recently,theUnitedStateshasreachedthestatutorydebtlimit$14.29tr
4、illion,accountingfor100%ofGDPin2010.TheJapanesedebtratiosince1997hasexceeded100%,andiscurrentlycloseto200%.BetterdebtsituationintheEU,GermanyandFrancein2009,thedebtratewas55.9%and68.4%.ThesecountriesarehigherthanChina'scurrentdebtrate.Second,thecentralplaceincreasestotalpublicde
5、btcomparedwithtotalgovernmentrevenueisstilllow.2010,totalgovernmentrevenueashighas8.3trillionyuan.17.5trillionyuanofthetotaldebtequaltototalgovernmentrevenuein2010to2-fold,whichismuchlowerthan6.5timestheUnitedStates.AndChinaistomaintainahighrevenuegrowthrate,thefirsthalfof2011,C
6、hina'sfiscalrevenuegrew30%in2011isexpectedtoreach10trillionyuan.Chinafacestheproblem:thedebtcrisisinEuropeandAmerica,slowdowninexternaldemand,economicgrowthhasdecreasedtherisk;commodityprices,wagecosts,negativerealinterestrates,aggregatedemandincreases,inflationroserapidly;RMBap
7、preciationpressure;financialsystemisnotperfect,imperfectfinancialmarketsViewofthefuture:China'seconomicslowdown,butacceleratedeconomicrestructuring,changesintheexternaldemandtodomesticdemand;overallinflationcontrol,butfacesrisingpressure;internationalizationoftheRMBinterestratem
8、arkettospeedup;financialsystem,financialmarkets
