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1、REITsAllournotesfromNAREIT’sNovemberREITworldannualconferenceinSanFranciscoLastweekweattendedNAREIT’sREITworldannualconferenceinSanFrancisco.Wemetwith45companiesandattendedanumberofpropertytoursandrelatedeventspriortotheconference–summarizedinthisnote.Fromabig-pictu
2、repointofview,herearefiveitemsthatwetookaway.·Commercialrealestatefundamentalsaregenerallygoodatthispointinthecycle,thoughbottom-lineREITFFOgrowthismodest.ThesolidU.S.jobgrowthandwageinflationcontinuetodrivedemandforrealestatespacebroadly.Butwhilethisgeneralstatemen
3、tistrue,seeingitdriveoutsizedREITearningsgrowthremainselusive.Whetheritisaleasingevent(i.e.,tenantmove-outsinoffice),dilutionfromassetsales(stilllotsofREITs),expensepressures(single-familyrentals),orsupplyinaspecificsegment(apartments)ormarket(Washington,D.C.),fewco
4、mpaniesareseeingtop-linegrowthfullydroptothebottomline.·Thepropertytypesandgeographiesinthepathofgrowthareinthebestshaperightnow.GeographicareaslikeSanFrancisco,Seattle,andBostonareseeingthestrongesttrendsduetotheirexposuretothetechnologyandlifesciencesectors.Inaddi
5、tion,industrialtrendsremainveryfavorableduetoe-commerceandtenantscontinuingtobuild-outdistributionnetworks.Despitesomevolatilityintechstockpricesoflate,wedidnotgetasensefromlandlordsthatdemandstemmingfromthesecompanieshaspulledbackatall.·Developmentpipelinescontinue
6、tobuildformanyREITs,butthisshouldbewatchedgivenhigherconstructioncostsandtheageofthecycle.Therewasnoshortageofdiscussionarounddevelopmentprojectsandpipelinestodrivegrowth.Andwhilewearebelieversinaddingvaluethroughdevelopment,pre-leasingandmitigatingfinancingandcostr
7、isksarekeygiventhedepthofthecycle.ApartmentREITswerethegroupwiththeleastfocusontheirownpipelinesatthispointasgrowthiscomingmostlyfromthecore,andprivatemarketdevelopmentisabundant.·Costinflation–fromoperatingexpensestopropertytaxestoconstructioncosts–ismeaningfulandl
8、ikelytobeadragongrowth.Costpressureswerefrontandcenteratthisconference.2019islikelytobeatoughyearforexpensegrowthascostpressuresmountonthe
