中国与印度燃气行业：不同，但如此相似

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1、November22,201809:01PMGMTMORGANSTANLEYASIA(SINGAPORE)PTE.+MayankMaheshwariEQUITYANALYSTMayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.com+656834-6719MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+JosephLam,CFAEQUITYANALYSTJoseph.Lam@morganstanley.com+8522239-1588MORGANSTANLEYASIA(SINGAPORE)PTE.+VivekRajamaniRESEARCHASSOCIA

2、TEVivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.com+656834-6740MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+BerylWangRESEARCHASSOCIATEBeryl.Wang@morganstanley.com+8523963-3643ChinaandIndiaGasAsiaPacificDifferent,butSoSimilarChinaandIndiaarethetwolargestgasgrowthmarketsglobally.Bothhavesimilardriversandbotharetacklingpollut

3、ion.WhileIndiacouldfollowChinaingaspenetration,China-despitebeingmorethanadecadeahead-couldlooktowardsIndia'sregulatoryframework.ChinaandIndia:thetwofastestgrowinggasmarketsglobally.However,IndiaisstilladecadebehindChinaongasinfrastructureandpenetration,withcurrentgaspenetrationsimilart

4、oChinain2004.OverthepastyearwehaveseenasignificantpolicypushbytheIndiangovernmenttoimproveinfrastructure,whichIndiaOil&GasAsiaPacificIndustryViewCautioushasincludedgivingnewlicencesforcitygasdistribution,raisingpipelinetariffsforlonghaulpipes,andbanningmorepollutingfuelslikefueloilandp

5、etcoke.ChinaUtilitiesAsiaPacificThisshoulddrive~2xincreaseingaspenetrationby2025,anddriveupsideriskforcitygasequities–partlyapingChina(9xriseinmarketcapsince2000).TheChinaExperience.Chinasaw~1.6xgasdemandin2017vs.2012,theyearbeforethegovernmentfocusedongasasatooltocontrolpollution.Chin

6、astartedaddressingthepollutionchallengein2013withcoal-to-gasconversion.Thecitygasdemandoutlookremainsrobustwithcoal-to-gasstillthenear-termdriveramidincreasingenvironmentalconcern.During2017-20,weestimategasvolumeCAGRforourmajorcoveredgasdistributorsat~23%onaverage,strongerthannationalg

7、asdemandgrowthat14%.Indiaissteppingonthegasaswell.WhileIndiafacessimilarchallenges,gaswilllikelyformabigpartofthesolutiontocontrolfossilfuelpollutionwithnearly177citiessettohavegasnetworksby2025.Gasinfrastructurewillcover2.2xmorepeople,i.e.,50%ofthepopulationinfiveyearsand5xmor