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1、14November2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchElectricUtilitiesResearchAnalystsMichaelWeinstein,ERP2123250897w.weinstein@credit-suisse.comKhanhNguyen,CFA2125383524khanh.l.nguyen@credit-suisse.comMaheepMandloi2123252345maheep.mandloi@credit-suisse.comElectricUtilitiesCOMMENTEEIFinancialConferen
2、ce–FullTakeawaysGoodmorning.WeincludehereourtakeawaysfromallthreedaysofmeetingsattheannualEEIFinancialConferencethisweekwithBKH,NI,PNW,DTE,WEC,DUK,EXC,NWE,D,ED,AEP,CNP,CMS,ES,EIX,PEGHE,NEE.Naturally,theconferencewasoftendominatedwithdiscussionaboutCalifornia’swildfires,whichappearedtoculminatewith
3、lastnight’sannouncementthatPG&Eapparentlydrewonitsentire~$3.5Bofrevolvers,causingmanyinvestorstowonderwhatthismeans–i.e.,isitaturningpointorcontinuationofcurrenttrajectory?GenerallyspeakingfromourvantagepointinSanFrancisco,wewouldbesurprisedtoseeanyolivebranchesliftedbythepublicortheirrepresentati
4、vesatthismoment.AtEIX,managementtoldusthattheyremainfocusedonemergencyresponse,buttheyalsonotedthattheirbalancesheetisstrong,insurancecoverageadequate,andthattherearenoplanstomakeanychangestodividendpolicy.Themeswesawemergingattheconferenceincluded:(1)OurdiscussionswithNI,NEE,PNW,ES,HE,AEP,D,DUK,C
5、MS,DTE,andEDallindicatedanincreasinglyaggressivestanceonrenewablesfromregulatedutilitiesinthecomingyears.ThiswasobviouslyevidentwithinNI’srecentlyreleasedIntegratedResourcePlanforNIPSCO,whichalreadyidentifieswindandrenewableresourcesassignificantlyeconomicallypreferentialtogas-firedCCGTsthatbidint
6、otheRFPat$800-$900/kW,evenintheverynear-termpriorto2020.(2)Increasingevidencethatloadgrowthforecastscouldbesettorisemateriallyformanyutilitiesinthenextyearortwo.Ourimpressionisthatseveralmanagementteamsarebeingtooconservative(notjustone).Loadgrowthimprovementsinrecentquartersareincreasinglybeingdi
7、scussedalongsidemanagementcommentarythateconomicconditionsandloadgrowtharelikelytocontinuetoimprovedowntheroad.However,theirofficialforecastsforgrowthremain0-0.5%asembeddedintheirforwardassumptionsforbothearnings
