财产与灾害险：加州野火损失情景分析

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1、13November2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchProperty&CasualtyInsuranceCOMMENTProperty&CasualtyInsuranceResearchAnalystsMichaelZaremski2123255061michael.zaremski@credit-suisse.comCaliforniaWildfireLossScenarioAnalysis:4Q’18EPSDeclines17%atMidpointFigure1:EPSEstimates-$7.5B4QCAWildfireIndus

2、tryLossUsedPriorCSEPSEstimates4Q'18ENew%ChangePrior2018ENew%ChangeALL$2.47$1.39-44%$9.28$8.22-11%RE$7.74$5.74-26%$18.15$16.15-11%TRV$3.66$2.81-23%$10.44$9.61-8%CINF*$0.93$0.68-27%$3.32$3.07-7%ACGL$0.58$0.50-13%$2.31$2.24-3%HIG$1.25$1.11-11%$4.79$4.65-3%WRB$0.98$0.90-8%$4.08$4.00-2%CB*$2.59$2.4

3、0-7%$10.01$9.82-2%PGR*$0.95$0.91-4%$4.71$4.67-1%SIGI$0.95$0.92-3%$3.41$3.38-1%Avg.-17%-5%Source:CreditSuisseestimates.*Seecommentsonpage4regardingspecialassumptions■ThreeCAWildfiresEst.toCostInsurers$5-$10Bn:TheCamp,Woolsey,andHillwildfiresarecausingsignificantdamage.Atthispoint,weestimateinsu

4、redlossesintherangeof$5-$10B.Weemphasizethatevenifthelargestfireiscontainedataslowerpacethanhoped,lossesareunlikelytopullanyinsurersintotheredin4Q.Recall,insurersincurred~$15Boflossesduring4Q’17’sCAwildfires.■Action:Basedonouranalysisofquartertodate4Q’18catastropheevents,including1)HurricaneMi

5、chael,2)theongoingCAfires,3)ThreeadditionalPCScatevents($138Mtotal)and4)additionalcushiongiven48daysremaininthequarter,weareloweringour4Qepsestimatesbyanaverageof17%forimpactedinsurersinourcoverage.■Additional4Q’18CATBufferIsSmall:Wepointoutthatourupdated4Qcatastropheloadsonlyincludeasmallbuff

6、erforadditional4QCATeventsbecausehistorically,lessthan15%of4Q’slosseshaveoccurredbetweenNov.15andNewYear’s.Thisisbecausethemajorityofhistorical4QlossesarehurricanerelatedandhurricaneseasonendsinlateOctober.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATION

7、S,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjecti