国际宏观经济冲击的影响

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1、国际宏观经济冲击的影响-->文章主题：考虑开放经济遭受外源性不利的供给冲击︰分析假设冲击的影响i)固定的汇率制度ii）灵活的汇率制度现状的分析，可以解释，当经济受到很大的震动，为何供应方政策一般认为比总需求政策更为可取。在你的回答中，应再次进行固定和浮动的汇率的分析和比较和对比调整路径。这篇文章分为两个部分。首先分析了外源不利的供给冲击对开放经济考虑固定和浮动的汇率制度的影响。第二节我们解释为何供应方政策一般认为比总需求政策更可取当经济受到很大的震惊.Section1.CarlinSoskice(2006)developaprehensivemodelofanopen-econom

2、yodelaretheaggregatedemand(AD)curve,thebalancetrade(BT)curveandtheequilibriumrateofemployment(ERU)curve.Also,orevariable,exchangerate(θ).Infact,thekeydifferencesbetyaretradeingoodsandtradeinassets;outputcandifferfromdomesticdemandbecauseoftheexportsp;Scanbeconsideredasanindexofnatio

3、nalpetitiveness.Thus,allthediagramssoftherealexchangerateandoutputanddiscussarketisinequilibriumandtherealinterestrateisequaltotheand-sideofthemodel.ADcurveispositivelyslopedtakingintoaccountthatamorepetitiveexchangerate(highθ)raisesaggregatedemandandoutput.TheBTcurveshoandforimport

4、stodelivertradebalance.AttheendtheERUcurve,thesupply-sideofthemodelinentsare1theployment(output).ThePScurve,undertheassumptionofconstantlaborproductivityandconstantmark-up,ishorizontal;P-settersconsidertheirprofits,definedintermsoftheproductpriceindex.Thereisnouniqueprice.OntheERUcurve(pointA)

5、,1i.e.theintersectionofallthreecurves(pointA,diagram2).Weethatesetsth-->einflationrateinthemedium-runequilibriumatarateequaltop;S,2006).AccordingtoMankiploymentandoutputatheirnaturalrates.AccordingtoCS(2006),"anexternalsupplyshockisdefinedasanunanticipatedchangeinthesoftradebetanufacturersandr

6、aaterials".Aclassicexampleofsuchashockely,theimpactontheADcurve,ontheBTcurveandontheERUcurve:infactanadverseexternalsupplyshockisabinationofanexternaltradeshockandasupply-sideimpactontheprice-setting2,itresultsinshiftingallthreecurvesinthesamedirection(redlines).Diagram2Intheshort-run(SR),sinc

7、epricesandpactofsuchashockonADandBTcurve,infact(intheSR)ADcurvefixesthelevelofoutput.Theincreaseofoil'spricerepresentsanegativeaggregatedemandshocksincethatthehigherimportbilldepressestheaggregatedemandanddecreasestheexports;ADandBTcurv