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1、MartinJacques：UnderstandingtheriseofChinaAboutthistalkSpeakingataTEDSaloninLondon,economistMartinJacquesasks:HowdoweintheWestmakesenseofChinaanditsphenomenalrise?Theauthorof"WhenChinaRulestheWorld,"heexamineswhytheWestoftenpuzzlesoverthegrowingpoweroftheChineseeconomy,and
2、offersthreebuildingblocksforunderstandingwhatChinaisandwillbecome.AboutMartinJacquesMartinJacquesistheauthorof"WhenChinaRulestheWorld,"andacolumnistfortheGuardianandNewStatesman.Hewasaco-founderofthethinktankDemos.Theworldischangingwithreallyremarkablespeed.Ifyoulookatthe
3、chartatthetophere,you'llseethatin2025,theseGoldmanSachsprojectionssuggestthattheChineseeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheAmericaneconomy.Andifyoulookatthechartfor2050,it'sprojectedthattheChineseeconomywillbetwicethesizeoftheAmericaneconomy,andtheIndianeconomywillbealmost
4、thesamesizeastheAmericaneconomy.AndweshouldbearinmindherethattheseprojectionsweredrawnupbeforetheWesternfinancialcrisis.Acoupleofweeksago,IwaslookingatthelatestprojectionbyBNPParibasforwhenChinawillhavealargereconomythantheUnitedStates.GoldmanSachsprojected2027.Thepost-cr
5、isisprojectionis2020.That'sjustadecadeaway.Chinaisgoingtochangetheworldintwofundamentalrespects.Firstofall,it'sahugedevelopingcountrywithapopulationof1.3billionpeople,whichhasbeengrowingforover30yearsataround10percentayear.Andwithinadecade,itwillhavethelargesteconomyinthe
6、world.Neverbeforeinthemodernerahasthelargesteconomyintheworldbeenthatofadevelopingcountry,ratherthanadevelopedcountry.Secondly,forthefirsttimeinthemodernera,thedominantcountryintheworld--whichIthinkiswhatChinawillbecome--willbenotfromtheWestandfromvery,verydifferentcivili
7、zationalroots.NowIknowit'sawidespreadassumptionintheWestthat,ascountriesmodernize,theyalsoWesternize.Thisisanillusion.It'sanassumptionthatmodernityisaproductsimplyofcompetition,marketsandtechnology.Itisnot;itisalsoshapedequallybyhistoryandculture.ChinaisnotliketheWest,and
8、itwillnotbecomeliketheWest.Itwillremaininveryfundamentalrespectsverydifferent.Nowthebigquestionh
