全球-固定收益-全球固定收益资产配置：一盆冷水.docx

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1、31October2018abcGLOBALFIXEDINCOMERATESFixedIncomeAssetAllocationAbucketofcoldwater4OurpreferenceforcoreEurozonebondsremains.Bundsbenefitfrompoliticaluncertaintyandaccommodativepolicy4DisinflationnotinflationisthetrendintheUS,supportingourbullishviewonTreasuries4ThemonthofOctoberbro

2、ughtuncertaintytoriskyassets,whichmightjustbeawarningofwhatistocomeFromrisk-seekingbehaviourtoriskaversionPage4Ifyearsofloosecentralbankpolicyhaveinducedrisk-seekingbehaviour,weshouldnotbesurprisedbywhathappensastheQEeraends.WenotethesharpcorrectionintheS&P500inOctober.Ourpreference

3、forcorebondmarkets–ledbytheUS,GermanyandAustralia–reflectstheviewthatratehikesaresufficientlyinthepricealreadyandourexpectationthatafurtherre-pricingofriskyassetsisahead.Front-endofSpainattractivePage13Inanadverseriskenvironment,thefrontendofSpainoffersvalueascorrelationstoBTPsarere

4、lativelylow.WeseenoquickresolutiontothesituationinItaly,butthemarketsaretreatingitasacountry-specificissueatpresent.TurningneutralintheUKPage14With10-yeargiltyieldshavingplummetedfromthetoptothebottomofthe2018rangeinthespaceofafewweeks,wearepausingforbreathandhaveturnedtacticallyneu

5、tralintheUK.AcurveflatteningbiasisfavouredaftertherecentsteepeningmoveandtheannouncementoftheBudget.HazardsonthehorizonforEURHY:TurnbearishPage16Whilethemacrochallengesattractheadlines,Eurocreditinvestorsshouldfocusonrisingindividualcompanyrisks.Asthebroadnegativemomentumcontinues,w

6、eturnmorebearishonEURHYwhichlooksmostexposed.SlowergrowthsupportsbullishstanceonAsiansovereignsPage23SeveralcentralbanksinAsiahavehadtoraiserates,butsignsofslowinggrowthhavebecomeincreasinglyevident.Therefore,wecontinuetolikepositioningforloweryieldsinmarketssuchasChina,KoreaandThai

7、land.EvenamidstthehigheryielderslikeIndonesiaandIndia,itisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttojustifyfurtherratehikes.StevenMajor,CFAGlobalHeadofFixedIncomeResearchHSBCBankplcsteven.j.major@hsbcib.com+442079915980Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystc

8、ertificationsintheD