[经管营销]i05660112洪国平论文

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1、摘要股票市场价格是广大投资者普遍关心的东西，投资者要想在瞬息万变的证券市场上把握先机获得良好的投资收益，必须客观地判断证劵价格波动的原因，准确把握证券价格波动的规律。因此，本文通过一些新的方法来判定股票价格的波动，探索股票定价的相关规律。首先，我们对国内外企业价值评估的文献进行综述；随后，我们简单介绍了国内外比较流行的评估方法：零增长模型，固定增长模型，不定增长模型，资本资产定价模型，Black-Scholes模型。最后我们详细介绍了一种适合中国股市的回归模型。多元统计分析是研究股票价格的一种新型方法。基本面因素、技术面因素、热点信息的转换和各种板块的创立，是通过复杂交互作

2、用影响股价的波动的。我们利用统计分析方法，考察并确定与上市公司股价之间的基本关系因素，通过因子分析方法，把股票分成高成长股、大盘绩优股、业绩一般般股、绩差股，并一一建立股票定价的基本模型。然后就其来进行实证研究，判断出沪市股票定价的基本趋势，为投资者的科学投资提供参考。关键词：股票投资；股票价值；股票定价的传统方法；多元统计回归模型AbstractThepriceinthestockmarketisgenerallyconcernedbythemajorityofinvestors.Inthisrapidlychangingstockmarket,iftheinvestor

3、swanttograsptheearliestopportunitytoobtainagoodreturn,theymustjudgethereasonsforpricefluctuationsobjectivelyandgraspthelawofpricefluctuationsaccurately.Therefore,weusesomenewmethodstodeterminethepriceofthestock,andexploretherelevantlawsofthestockpricing.Firstofall,wereviewliteraturesofasse

4、ssingthevalueofdomesticandforeignenterprises.Subsequently,webrieflyintroducesomeassessmentmethodsbothpopularathomeandabroad:Zerogrowthmodel;Fixed-growthmodel;Uncertaingrowthmodel;CapitalAssetPricingModel;Black-Scholesmodel.Finally,wedetailaregressionmodelthatsuittoChina'sstockmarket.Multiv

5、ariatestatisticalanalysisisanewmethodtoexaminethestockprice.Thefluctuationofstockpricewasinfluencedbythecomplicatedinteractionofthefollowingfactors:basicfactors,techniques,thechangesofhotpointinformationandthecreationofallkindsofplates.Bymeansofstatisticsanalysis,weobserveanddecidethebasic

6、relationshipwiththestockpriceoflistedcompany,throughfactoranalysis,wedividethestocksintohigh-growthstocks,largeblue-chipstocks,theperformanceofthegeneralasstocks,sharesoflowperformers.Thenweestablishthebasicmodelofstockpriceonebyone.LastlywewanttocarryoutempiricalstudiestodeterminetheShang

7、haistockmarket'sbasictrend.Thispaperprovidesascientificreferenceforinvestorstoinvestinstockmarket.KeyWords:Stockinvestment;Stockvalue;Thetraditionalmethodofstockpricing;Multivariatestatisticalregressionmodel目录摘要Abstract第1章绪论…………………………………………………………………………(1)第2章股票